Mr. TV: Best, Worst of ’08
By Marc Berman

Let’s be honest, 2008 will not be remembered as one of the better years of television. If anything, there will be an asterisk in the TV history books that reads: “Year of the three-month writers strike.” Needless to say, no one benefited by the walkout—and no one will again if the Screen Actors Guild makes the same mistake next year. Don’t these unions (or studios, on the other side) ever learn?

But since there is a lot to be negative about, let me start with the biggest winners of 2008. By far, that would be NBC’s Saturday Night Live, care of its spot-on political parodies, and the star that ignited the show to its best ratings in 14 years, Tina Fey. Three more Emmy wins for Fey’s 30 Rock, plus her uncanny resemblance to vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin made her a double threat on TV. But will viewers expecting Fey to end every sentence with “you betcha” be disappointed now that she has put the Palin impersonation to rest, at least until 2012?

SNL may be the toast of late night, but two shows in prime time that deserve to be touted are CBS Tuesday dramas NCIS and The Mentalist. While they may not be magnets for young viewers, NCIS is now the third-most-watched program in prime time and lead-out The Mentalist, the perfect counterpart, is the highest rated new series of the year. Also building momentum on CBS is Monday anchor The Big Bang Theory, which has made it cool to be a nerd, and Friday staple Ghost Whisperer, which continues to deliver on a night marred by decreasing HUT levels.

Elsewhere, ABC’s still watercooler-worthy Lost deserves accolades for switching from flashbacks to flash-forwards of the “Oceanic Six.” The network’s morning coffee-klatsch, The View, continues to thrive minus Rosie O’Donnell, who recently bombed as host of variety special/backdoor pilot Rosie Live on NBC. Ed Sullivan she is not. And grande dame Glenn Close may be 0 for 5 in her bid for an Oscar, but Emmy No. 2 came calling last fall, this time for Lead Actress in a Dramatic Series for Damages on FX. I also think two successful ongoing hosting gigs for Tom Bergeron (Dancing With the Stars and America’s Funniest Home Videos) make him one of the most-watched personalities on television.

But, as always, the year was marred by plenty of mediocrity. Had there not been the aforementioned writers strike last spring, viewers may not have lost interest in the once-promising Pushing Daisies and Dirty Sexy Money on ABC. And we might have had better options to choose from this fall than freshman clinkers like ABC’s Opportunity Knocks, CBS’ The Ex List, NBC’s My Own Worst Enemy, Fox’s Do Not Disturb and that deadly trio Media Rights Capital leased out on Sunday on The CW—In Harm’s Way, Valentine and Easy Money. As much as The CW is touting its growth among young females, this is a network that is now filling Sunday with repeats of Jericho and a B-level movie. Other than Monday’s combination of Gossip Girl and One Tree Hill, there are potholes all over The CW’s schedule.

Fading NBC, meanwhile, is now home to what I think is the weakest prime-time schedule in the history of the network. There is not a single breakout hit (sitcoms The Office and 30 Rock are only core favorites), and viewers have not embraced any of its new series, full-season-renewed Kath & Kim included. The aging Law & Order franchise continues to erode, and the one show that recently held promise, Heroes, is sinking faster than the Titanic. Once the home of “Must see TV,” it could literally take NBC years to rebound from these setbacks.

CBS has done a great job building a solid and comprehensive lineup (including trying an original game show on Saturday). And Fox is poised for more young-adult victory pending the return of American Idol in January. But ABC is still short on hit comedies, Wednesday collapsed, Grey’s Anatomy has a low pulse, Friday’s relocated combination of Wife Swap and Supernanny is a miss, and flashing ahead five years on Desperate Housewives has had no noticeable impact creatively. Since Grey’s Anatomy co-star Katherine Heigl publicly complained she was not given the material to warrant an Emmy nomination in 2008 (boo hoo), maybe the writers should send her packing.

I will remain in search of the next big hit. But based on what’s coming up in 2008, my advice is to either be patient or make sure you have your favorite series on DVD.

quote:

Originally posted by Marc Berman:
Friday’s relocated combination of Wife Swap and Supernanny is a miss.

Good column overall Marc but I really disagree over these two reality shows. They're incredibly cheap and the demos are as good if not better at times than what Women's Murder Club was pulling on Fridays. Plus, they've given 20/20 a stable lead in, something it hasn't had in years. Comedies would be much more expensive and a few years ago when ABC did air them on Fridays, they rated no better than the reality shows. Plus, ABC needs to rebuild their comedy block on other nights of the week first before developing new Friday shows. That said, should a show that does well among women 35+ (ala Ghost Whisperer) show up and be able to pull over a 2.0 demo on Fridays (Women's Murder Club did not do this very well and therefore was canceled), then go ahead and pick it up.

Good point, mushu. I used to be addicted to Wife Swap but stopped watching a few years ago. Maybe I will give it a shot again.

quote:

Originally posted by mushu_jj:

quote:

Originally posted by Marc Berman:
Friday’s relocated combination of Wife Swap and Supernanny is a miss.

Good column overall Marc but I really disagree over these two reality shows. They're incredibly cheap and the demos are as good if not better at times than what Women's Murder Club was pulling on Fridays. Plus, they've given 20/20 a stable lead in, something it hasn't had in years. Comedies would be much more expensive and a few years ago when ABC did air them on Fridays, they rated no better than the reality shows. Plus, ABC needs to rebuild their comedy block on other nights of the week first before developing new Friday shows. That said, should a show that does well among women 35+ (ala Ghost Whisperer) show up and be able to pull over a 2.0 demo on Fridays (Women's Murder Club did not do this very well and therefore was canceled), then go ahead and pick it up.

I think too many people put too much stock in the 18-49 demo. When NCIS first premiered, it was not an 18-49 powerhouse, but it pulled in big ratings. I am unsure if Mentalist does really well in that demographic, but it is a top 5 show. WMC was showing tremendous promise on Fridays even though it was not pulling the big demo numbers. It is ridiculous that nearly everyone's rationale for cancelling a show has to do with that demo when the logic should focus on the overall picture. Look at CBS...they have very few holes because the focus is not on 18-49, but the big picture. NBC and ABC should take notes.

You may well be right that too much emphasis is put on the demo. However, its the advertisers who are the ones who emphasize that demo and it is they who pay the bills. And those who pay the bills decide what is and what is not important.

quote:

Originally posted by blackfury:
I think too many people put too much stock in the 18-49 demo. When NCIS first premiered, it was not an 18-49 powerhouse, but it pulled in big ratings. I am unsure if Mentalist does really well in that demographic, but it is a top 5 show. WMC was showing tremendous promise on Fridays even though it was not pulling the big demo numbers. It is ridiculous that nearly everyone's rationale for cancelling a show has to do with that demo when the logic should focus on the overall picture. Look at CBS...they have very few holes because the focus is not on 18-49, but the big picture. NBC and ABC should take notes.

Relative to the big ratings they pull, NCIS and Mentalist do terrible numbers in the 18-49.
18-19 million viewers with a 3.7-3.8 for 18-49.

Compare that to BBT and HIMYM with 10.5-10.8 million viewers and a 3.7-4.2 for 18-49!!!

So clearly, the big picture is important. If it were not, both of the prior shows would be in jeopardy of cancellation. WMC should have been saved since, proportionately, it pulled similar numbers to the CBS shows. If I were CBS, I would have taken the show and sandwiched it between GW and Numbers.

Finally, the true irony is that advertisers care about the 18-49 demo, but a rapidly decreasing number of them are actually watching commercials. Then, the demo they don't care about, 50+, watches commercials in larger numbers. My parents pay very close attention to commercials since they have not yet jumped on the DVR bandwagon. Their purchasing is closely aligned to what they see. They spent 30 minutes telling me about their favorite commercials, I spent 2 minutes.

What you say may well be true. However, until the people writing the checks agree, the demo will be king.

quote:

Originally posted by blackfury:
Finally, the true irony is that advertisers care about the 18-49 demo, but a rapidly decreasing number of them are actually watching commercials. Then, the demo they don't care about, 50+, watches commercials in larger numbers. My parents pay very close attention to commercials since they have not yet jumped on the DVR bandwagon. Their purchasing is closely aligned to what they see. They spent 30 minutes telling me about their favorite commercials, I spent 2 minutes.

And that said, CBS does very much so pay attention to demos. The eye has canceled literally dozens of older skewing shows in just the past 3 or 4 years (Judging Amy, the Guardian- another Simon Baker show, 60 Minutes II- it was canceled because it was older skewing not because of Rather-gate, among lots of others). As for NCIS, it may be older skewing, but it has always pulled around a 3.0 at least in the demo and it was something to throw against American Idol that could pull a 2.7 against the monster, which is considered very good today. WMC wasn't that big of a total viewers hit, never much above 8 million, if that many. Granted ABC never gave it a lead in or much advertising, but they did try to help it out and the incredibly pathetic 2.0 or less demo ratings on Tuesdays against nothing on CBS and a weakened SVU on NBC was the final straw last spring. It's Dancing lead in was pulling much better than a 3.5 last fall and Boston Legal pulled a 2.0 with no lead in last season (Carpoolers). WMC should've remained on Fridays last season with perhaps Duel as the lead in at the end of the year for a last shot. Had it managed that 2.0 on a Friday, it would still be there.

quote:

Originally posted by PaulC:
You may well be right that too much emphasis is put on the demo. However, its the advertisers who are the ones who emphasize that demo and it is they who pay the bills. And those who pay the bills decide what is and what is not important.

quote:

Originally posted by blackfury:
I think too many people put too much stock in the 18-49 demo. When NCIS first premiered, it was not an 18-49 powerhouse, but it pulled in big ratings. I am unsure if Mentalist does really well in that demographic, but it is a top 5 show. WMC was showing tremendous promise on Fridays even though it was not pulling the big demo numbers. It is ridiculous that nearly everyone's rationale for cancelling a show has to do with that demo when the logic should focus on the overall picture. Look at CBS...they have very few holes because the focus is not on 18-49, but the big picture. NBC and ABC should take notes.

I agree proportionally it was very near what CBS shows pull but the fact of the matter is that CBS shows like NCIS and the Mentalist, while older skewing, still draw pretty decent demos and usually hold them against Idol. Networks aren't looking for proportions, they're looking at the raw numbers pulled. NCIS pulls the same amount of young adults as 30 Rock so they get the same price, etc. If a show does well among 18-34 year olds (which is really where CBS does very poorly- not 18-49) then the net can command even more moolah. Its why ABC makes as much if not more on prime time shows than CBS does each year. CBS shows also pull very Idol-proof 18-49s year olds (probably because a lot of the audience is male 35+). ABC would never dream of putting Greys Anatomy against Idol. Too much of the same audience. CBS can throw CSI against it with little problems. WMC would've been an alright pick up for CBS but they don't need it so why bother with a show that needed creative help and was produced by Fox? You are perhaps right that advertisers will turn to older viewers who actually watch ads, but my guess is that advertisers will just go elsewhere to cable or find other ways to make money in shows.

quote:

Originally posted by blackfury:
Relative to the big ratings they pull, NCIS and Mentalist do terrible numbers in the 18-49.
18-19 million viewers with a 3.7-3.8 for 18-49.

Compare that to BBT and HIMYM with 10.5-10.8 million viewers and a 3.7-4.2 for 18-49!!!

So clearly, the big picture is important. If it were not, both of the prior shows would be in jeopardy of cancellation. WMC should have been saved since, proportionately, it pulled similar numbers to the CBS shows. If I were CBS, I would have taken the show and sandwiched it between GW and Numbers.

Finally, the true irony is that advertisers care about the 18-49 demo, but a rapidly decreasing number of them are actually watching commercials. Then, the demo they don't care about, 50+, watches commercials in larger numbers. My parents pay very close attention to commercials since they have not yet jumped on the DVR bandwagon. Their purchasing is closely aligned to what they see. They spent 30 minutes telling me about their favorite commercials, I spent 2 minutes.

Up until they moved WMC, it was consistently the #1 show of the evening and during its timeslot the first five weeks of its run!!! It beat established hits GW and Numbers!!! It could have inherited a Wednesday or Thursday slot after a couple of years. Some shows just need time to grow and gather a broader audience. ABC made the big mistake of trying to make it an overnight sensation. Their efforts killed the show. Look at JAG. It took 4 or 5 years to take off, but it did very well and launched a very successful spin-off. NBC could've had NCIS....oh well. I just wonder whether some of the individuals on here would make better programming execs than the people at the networks.

I would be worried that people on these boards were in charge, 99 per cent of the energy would be spent sending hit shows to Saturday and the other 1 per cent moving unsuccesful shows from one network to another. If there was time to spare, current successful shows would be moved from their timeslots immediately.

quote:

Originally posted by blackfury:
I just wonder whether some of the individuals on here would make better programming execs than the people at the networks.

Um please provide some supporting evidence for WMC being the number one show of the evening. Most of the time it had around 7.5 million viewers, way less most weeks than Ghost Whisperer or Numb3rs.

quote:

Originally posted by blackfury:
Up until they moved WMC, it was consistently the #1 show of the evening and during its timeslot the first five weeks of its run!!! It beat established hits GW and Numbers!!! It could have inherited a Wednesday or Thursday slot after a couple of years. Some shows just need time to grow and gather a broader audience. ABC made the big mistake of trying to make it an overnight sensation. Their efforts killed the show. Look at JAG. It took 4 or 5 years to take off, but it did very well and launched a very successful spin-off. NBC could've had NCIS....oh well. I just wonder whether some of the individuals on here would make better programming execs than the people at the networks.

I think the networks need to pay more attention to the 50+ demo, but WMC was losing steam as the season progressed.

quote:

Originally posted by blackfury:
I think too many people put too much stock in the 18-49 demo. When NCIS first premiered, it was not an 18-49 powerhouse, but it pulled in big ratings. I am unsure if Mentalist does really well in that demographic, but it is a top 5 show. WMC was showing tremendous promise on Fridays even though it was not pulling the big demo numbers. It is ridiculous that nearly everyone's rationale for cancelling a show has to do with that demo when the logic should focus on the overall picture. Look at CBS...they have very few holes because the focus is not on 18-49, but the big picture. NBC and ABC should take notes.

quote:

Originally posted by mushu_jj:
Um please provide some supporting evidence for WMC being the number one show of the evening. Most of the time it had around 7.5 million viewers, way less most weeks than Ghost Whisperer or Numb3rs.

Yep. WMC was the #1 show in its timeslot and the #1 show in ABC's night many times, but it was not the #1 show of the evening across all the networks.

quote:

Originally posted by Marc Berman:
I think the networks need to pay more attention to the 50+ demo,

Why? People keep arguing that because the old folks are the only ones that still watch TV regularly and in large numbers, that the networks should make them the priority.

If old folks are the only ones still buying blank VCR tapes, does that mean that a VCR tape maker should keep on making the things and marketing them to the only people left? No. The VCR tape maker has to turn a profit or give up the business altogether. The bottom line is that the networks are trying to make money. If the advertisers don't want to pay a sustainable fee to reach old folks that sit at home all the time, then ad suported TV isn't sustainable by going after that demo.