It is going to be a good slate of shows that will begin giving The CW its identity. And the really good news? They are generating buzz and getting the previews out there so people will turn the dial come Fall. My quick run down...
Gossip Girl - I am a sucker for the teen angsty drama. While what I have seen seems a little off, perhaps it is too female for me, it seems good quality with a decent cast. It also seems very dark and detached, maybe that is just what happens in Manhattan rather than the OC.
Reaper - This is really my can't wait and see the polished product. I will be very disappointed if they cannot keep Kevin Smith's pacing and feel, but the subject matter will appeal across the board.
Aliens in America - I put this on level with season one of Everyone Hates Chris. It will be smart and witty and even poignant. It will float issues that are rarely touched due to the dicotomy of the cast and what it allows to be touched. The pilot is funny and I hope it stays that way.
Life is Wild - This one I am not wild about. Never been a fan of the family drama. Never watched 7th Heaven. But if this can be a filler for that crowd it should be just fine. I hope the show doesn't give the America in South Africa treatment. I hope they really focus on some of the culture and problems in South Africa in addition to the problems of family.
All are by far better than Runaway. You can easily see that in just the previews. The material of the shows matches the mission of the network as well. Runaway felt more of a FOX show in its material and execution.
Posts: 759 | Location: Utah | Registered: 21 February 2007
My premiere predictions: GG - 5 + million Reaper - 4 + million AIA - 3 + million LIW - 2-4 million CWNOW - 1-3 million ON - 1-3 million
With all of this said, their averages will most likely be below their premiere ratings. Though Reaper could gain momentum throughout its run. GG could be a solid demo and viewer hi (on CW levels).
The pilots (except ON CWN)all look better than The Game and Runaway.
TV SCRIPT FOR SALE! VISIT MY YOUTUBE PAGE ( www.youtube.com/thespotshow ) FOR MORE INFORMATION! Or Visit MY [color:PURPLE]Blogspot page at[/color]www.oakdaledude.blogspot.com
I will be Watching: Aliens in America, Reaper and Gossip Girl and maybe Life is Wild....
My predictions for episode pilot are: AIA: 3.5 million Reaper: 3.5 - 4 Million Gossip Girl- 4 - 5 Million Life is Wild - 2.5 - 3.5 Million CW NOW- 2 Million ON- 2 million
The only one that I think will be a hit (by CW standards) is Gossip Girl. Reaper and Aliens in America will face stiff competition. I think the entire Sunday lineup will be invisible.
Originally posted by tvfan300: The only one that I think will be a hit (by CW standards) is Gossip Girl. Reaper and Aliens in America will face stiff competition. I think the entire Sunday lineup will be invisible.
Gossip Girl has the best shot at an instant audience given its lead-in. However, it really looks like just another teen soap, so what will compel it to better long term ratings than One Tree Hill? Do enough young girls read those books (and haven't outgrown them) to build a much larger audience? I'd set Gossip Girl at 4 million, but I really don't see it building on ANTM as some have suggested.
Aliens in America could be a really funny show, but would that be enough to propel it to big ratings? To a large extent, I think the network, timeslot, and genre are going to limit ratings more than anything the show offers in terms of comedy/story. I'd set AiA at 3 million. The best thing this show has going for it is that I don't believe CW will yank it off the air, so fans can be reasonably assured that the show will last. Well, at least they can be more assured of that than FOX's 'Til Death fans.
Reaper is the big wild card. I do believe that it can build on its lead-in even in that tough timeslot. The question is, will it be a small fanbase 'cult' show like Supernatural or can it be a 'breakout' hit like Buffy was years ago? If anything on this fall's CW schedule can break out, it will be this show. I'll guess 5 million for Reaper and slot it as the CW's big success story for this fall.
I agree about all the Sunday shows being close to invisible. If Life is Wild can concentrate on 'family issues' rather than dating antics between the haves and have nots, it will at least get some critical attention. Still, even attention from the critics won't bring big ratings here. 3 million.
5 million for Reaper? Against the similar looking Chuck and not to mention monsters like Dancing and House? No way. B&tG will give it a 4 million viewer lead in, but I don't see B&tG growing out of it. Gossip Girls will probably not do much better than One Tree Hill, unless Private Practice really bombs (and that's unlikely to happen). Plus, we can't forget that the Death Star will suck a lot of audience out of it as well. Aliens in America has a compatible lead in imo, but the flow from it to Girlfriends won't be there. A better idea should've been to use it as the lead in and then go with the rest of the three comedies. Life is Wild will have about an invisible lead in on Sundays, but if 2.5 million can tune in, I don't see it leaving. It's got to be pretty cheap and if VM can last with 2.5 million on average watching then so can this show.
Reaper - Debut 4.7, season average 3.8 Gossip Girls - Debut 4.5, season average 4.1 Aliens in America - Debut 2.9, season average 2.4 Life is Wild - Debut 4.1, season average 3.3
CW Now and Viewsers will probably float around 2-2.25 million, slowly decreasing over the year with bottoms around 1.5 million.
But CW, despite its problems last season, is setting up nicely. All of a sudden it has solid nights on Wednseday, Thursday and Friday (barring Gossip Girl just stinking). If Reaper finds a place on Tuesday, they will be in decent shape after the year with them needing to focus on the comedy block and Sunday.
Posts: 759 | Location: Utah | Registered: 21 February 2007
Originally posted by mushu_jj: 5 million for Reaper? Against the similar looking Chuck and not to mention monsters like Dancing and House? No way.
The CW is really trying to make Reaper into a success. Check out the Reaper forum for the latest change to the show. Hopefully, this will be a positive.
I have a question for you guys. Why is it the CW can't promote all of its show equally? I mean last season, they put all of their push behind Gilmore Girls and VM and ANTM, while their other shows were mostly put the back burner for promotion. Does anyone know why they could not split the money equally?
And as for this coming season, I have a feeling more of their promotional and marketing money will go to the new shows. NOt that it is a bad thing, but shouldn't the marketing be equal for all the shows on the CW? Thanks.
Promotion is a representation of what the network thinks of a show as well as how much money is invested in that show and (for a new show) if the network believes the show will be able to breakout. There really is no need to promote Smackdown because that show is promoted by WWE Raw on USA and already has a loyal audience. I suspect that there will be a huge push for Gossip Girl and to a lesser extent Reaper. But I think the competition will get the better of Reaper.
Ok...but doesn't a network still have to promote the old shows on its network? Or is it of the thought that since they are already established shows, they do not need that much promotion?
The older shows are normally on TV all summer long in reruns, too, which equates out with a lot of promotion. For example, does Supernatural need 'fall promotion' when it is being shown 2 hours per week on CW? Whereas, a show like America's Next Top Model has been off the air for months so it makes sense to try and remind viewers that it exists.
