It is possible that The CW will drop to 8th place, among the US broadcast Networks, by this time next year. And here are a few reasons why.

Last week, Telemundo did something it has never done before... Tie the CW in the 18-49 demo for the week. The #2 Spanish Language network has been slowly growing in the ratings. It now regularly matches the numbers that My Network TV posts and as the hispanic population grows, so will its numbers. In recent weeks it has ahd a few programs grab good viewer numbers, some over 2 million.

Look for Telemundo to grow to become the #6 broadcast network, right behind Univision in the ratings.

I also expect My Network TV to pass the CW in the ratings by next year. Its addition (and the CW's subtraction) of WWE SMackdown will boosts its average to almost double to what it currently is. Now it will not be an easy task for MyTV, but with the added eyes to Smackdown, it may just pump up the ratings for other MyTV programs. MyTV will actually program shows that complement the same audience that will watch Smack down. Go Figure.

So, unless the CW has an unknown Ace up it's sleeve, look for the Network to fall to 8th place by July of 2009.... If its still on the air.

Can you clear up what you mean by this? Are you just refering to Summer ratings or does this claim also apply to Fall 2009?

Telemundo beating The CW doesn't sound like a stretch. But the MYNetworkTV claim seems to be based on assumptions that do nothing more than provide for potential bragging rights if it does happen.

I really wouldn't be surprised though. I just don't expect it.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: NYHunter,

The only way I see MyTV passing The Cw is if all of The CW's new shows flop this fall. With Smallville ending and ANTM on the decline the two would probably be a lot closer in the ratings.

Telemundo has room to grow only so far, as Spanish will not replace English as the most-used language in the USA. However, it hasn't reached its full potential yet. MyNet will have Smackdown & little else to draw too many viewers. But it does have a core viewership, albeit small. that's more than we can say for CW.

I still wonder if some suits at CBS WANT CW to fail. Keeping Ostroff as programming director, given her abysmal record, is equivalent to a major league baseball keeping a pitcher whose 3-year record is 5-75 with an ERA of 11.

Personally, I don't see CW as anything more than the 4th largest broadcast network (English speaking). Also, I personally don't agree with counting the Spanish-language nets along side the more established English-speaking broadcast nets - ABC, CBS, Fox, NBC, CW and even MyNetwork TV. The reason is not xenophobia, but because the Spanish speakers, such as Univision, Telemundo, etc., do not have an appeal to those outside of the Spanish-speaking community.

As far as MNT surpassing CW during the upcoming season, I just don't see it happening. The biggest thing that MNT has going for it is the addition of WWE's "Smackdown" franchise. Since MNT will be the third network to air "Smackdown" (after UPN and CW), I would expect it to lose at least 10% of its audience as a result of being shuffled around the dial again. Combine that with a schedule that looks more like a cable net than a broadcast net (two movie nights, celebrity driven reality, and a border-line racist comedy).

By contrast, CW will likely get some mileage out of its new "90210" and perhaps even its new leased-out Sunday schedule. Outside of "Smackdown", most of MNT's programs will likely struggle to attain 2 million viewers.

Repeat months in the summer and in December should be MNTV's for the taking this year, should Smackdown's audience follow it to the new net (I think they will). That said, the CW should still hold onto the weeks where new stuff is being pumped out and therefore remain ahead overall. The CW's new Tuesday combo should average around 3 million at least a week and I do see Stylista working after Top Model. Fridays will obviously drop about 60 to 70% in the ratings. I don't think Sunday night will really lose anything by going to other programming. The key there will be promotion outside of the CW (something I hope MRC is planning on). Should Sundays even reach 1.8 to 1.9 million, the CW should in the end remain at the same levels from this past year because you have to factor in the strike weeks where everything was in repeats again aside from a few select programs.

quote:

Originally posted by Jay:
As far as MNT surpassing CW during the upcoming season, I just don't see it happening. The biggest thing that MNT has going for it is the addition of WWE's "Smackdown" franchise. Since MNT will be the third network to air "Smackdown" (after UPN and CW), I would expect it to lose at least 10% of its audience as a result of being shuffled around the dial again. Combine that with a schedule that looks more like a cable net than a broadcast net (two movie nights, celebrity driven reality, and a border-line racist comedy).

Agreed that they're getting no where with most of their lineup. For now the movies is a good filler idea on Saturdays and Thursdays. Celebrity driven reality is good to an extent. They really could use a reality franchise player to back on. Jail and Street Patrol could just as well combine into one hour. Ratings could potentially go up for both that way and they should consider a crime drama of some sort or an action drama to complement them and Smackdown. Under One Roof has some very racist undertones in my opinion. The show is downright trash and with Flava Flav losing some of his star power, I don't think this will last much longer. MNTV has already slotted that for 9:30 on Wed. this fall after the new Tony Rock show and Funniest Moments with Arsenio Hall.

I don't think it will happen by this fall. The fall of the CW will happen over the next year.

Telemundo has been slowly growing its numbers and should pass MyTV, on a regular basis, soon and the CW by next summer.

MyTV, with the addition of Smackdown, now has a high profile show that it cvan use to promote the rest of its schedule. Its numbers hould go up as the year progresses.

Yes, the CW has 90210 and a couple of other new series that have that so called "BUZZZZZ", but lets not forget that Gossip Girl was to lead the way last season toa new, rebounding season for the CW. It never Happened.

quote:

Originally posted by NYHunter:
Can you clear up what you mean by this? Are you just refering to Summer ratings or does this claim also apply to Fall 2009?

Telemundo beating The CW doesn't sound like a stretch. But the MYNetworkTV claim seems to be based on assumptions that do nothing more than provide for potential bragging rights if it does happen.

I really wouldn't be surprised though. I just don't expect it.