February Sweeps Picks 

Net         Viewers          18-49
------------------------------------
FOX          17.231           7.0
CBS           9.800           2.8
ABC           8.100           2.7
NBC           9.200           2.9
CW            2.450           1.3
MNT           1.250           0.7

	ABC	ABC	CBS	CBS	NBC	NBC	FOX	FOX	CW	CW	MNT	MNT
	views	A18-49	views	A18-49	views	A18-49	views	A18-49	views	A18-49	views	A18-49
AVERAGE	7.563	2.5	9.603	2.7	7.778	2.6	14.503	5.6	2.207	1.2	1.218	0.6
												
dumont	9.200	2.8	9.500	2.2	7.900	2.5	16.275	6.5	2.150	1.0	1.350	0.7
obveeus	7.200	2.5	11.500	3.2	8.000	2.7	13.975	6.0	2.250	1.0	0.950	0.4
lopez	7.000	2.6	10.945	3.1	8.500	2.6	15.000	6.0	2.100	1.0		
himymfa	7.600	2.3	9.900	2.5	8.600	2.7	16.700	6.3	2.050	1.1	1.500	0.6
vlis	7.313	2.6	9.753	2.4	8.098	2.5	14.625	5.5	2.150	1.0	0.975	0.4
tvfann3	7.225	2.3	9.825	2.5	8.120	2.8	15.190	6.0	2.355	1.2	1.350	0.7
tv-aholic	7.220	2.4	9.200	2.6	7.890	2.6	13.671	5.1	2.450	1.1	1.200	0.7
yankees	8.343	2.7	9.589	2.8	7.324	2.4	14.279	5.3	2.644	1.1	1.165	0.5
Douglas	8.420	2.8	9.760	2.9	7.950	3.0	15.500	5.0	2.160	0.9	1.150	0.4
zedman2	8.150	2.6	9.125	2.7	7.825	2.6	14.575	5.7	2.100	1.0	1.250	0.4
deborah	7.342	2.6	10.450	2.9	9.121	3.0	14.862	5.3	2.650	1.6	1.120	0.6
chimera	8.575	2.8	9.525	2.7	8.125	2.6	14.975	5.9	2.200	1.1	1.200	0.5
drew	8.175	2.6	9.525	2.5	8.625	2.9	14.145	5.4	2.055	1.3	1.225	0.6
tvratin	8.758	2.7	12.012	3.5	7.120	3.1	17.544	6.4	1.984	1.1	1.000	0.7
mork	8.100	2.7	9.800	2.8	9.200	2.9	17.231	7.0	2.450	1.3	1.250	0.7
RANGE:												
high	9.200	2.8	12.012	3.5	9.200	3.1	17.544	7.0	2.650	1.6	1.500	0.7
low	7.000	2.3	9.125	2.2	7.120	2.4	13.671	5.0	1.984	0.9	0.950	0.4
												
hi/low	131%	122%	132%	159%	129%	129%	128%	140%	134%	178%	158%	175%
range		lowest					lowest			highest	highest	
		A18-49					viewer			viewer	A18-49	
		range					rane			range	range	

  

		ACTUAL	AVERAGE	zedman2	dumont	chimera	yankrj	vlis
ABC	views	8.094	8.358	8.150	9.200	8.575	8.343	7.313
diff fr	actual		-0.264	-0.056	-1.106	-0.481	-0.249	0.781
rank	#			2	15	6	4	10
ABC	A18-49	2.7	2.7	2.6	2.8	2.8	2.7	2.6
diff fr	actual		0.0	0.1	-0.1	-0.1	0.0	0.1
rank	#			4	4	4	1	4
CBS	views	8.111	9.592	9.125	9.500	9.525	9.589	9.753
diff fr	actual		-1.481	-1.014	-1.389	-1.414	-1.478	-1.642
rank	#			1	3	4	6	7
CBS	A18-49	2.2	2.5	2.7	2.2	2.7	2.8	2.4
diff fr	actual		-0.3	-0.5	0.0	-0.5	-0.6	-0.2
rank	#			7	1	7	9	2
NBC	views	7.574	7.862	7.825	7.900	8.125	7.324	8.098
diff fr	actual		-0.288	-0.251	-0.326	-0.551	0.250	-0.524
rank	#			2	4	10	1	8
NBC	A18-49	2.5	2.5	2.6	2.5	2.6	2.4	2.5
diff fr	actual		0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0
rank	#			3	1	3	3	1
FOX	views	17.816	15.039	14.575	16.275	14.975	14.279	14.625
diff fr	actual		2.778	3.241	1.541	2.841	3.537	3.191
rank	#			11	4	8	12	10
FOX	A18-49	6.9	5.8	5.7	6.5	5.9	5.3	5.5
diff fr	actual		1.1	1.2	0.4	1.0	1.6	1.4
rank	#			9	2	8	12	10
CW	views	2.338	2.286	2.100	2.150	2.200	2.644	2.150
diff fr	actual		0.052	0.238	0.188	0.138	-0.306	0.188
rank	#			9	7	5	13	7
CW	A18-49	0.9	1.1	1.0	1.0	1.1	1.1	1.0
diff fr	actual		-0.2	-0.1	-0.1	-0.2	-0.2	-0.1
rank	#			2	2	7	7	2
MNT	views	1.202	1.173	1.250	1.350	1.200	1.165	0.975
diff fr	actual		0.030	-0.048	-0.148	0.002	0.037	0.227
rank	#			5	9	1	4	12
MNT	A18-49	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.4
diff fr	actual		0.0	0.1	-0.2	0.0	0.0	0.1
rank	#			3	10	1	1	3
rank	tot			58	62	64	73	76
final	ranking			1	2	3	4	5

		ACTUAL	AVERAGE	mork	Douglas	tv-ahol	drew	himymfan22
ABC	views	8.094	8.358	8.100	8.420	7.220	8.175	7.600
diff fr	actual		-0.264	-0.006	-0.326	0.874	-0.081	0.494
rank	#			1	5	12	3	7
ABC	A18-49	2.7	2.7	2.7	2.8	2.4	2.6	2.3
diff fr	actual		0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.3	0.1	0.4
rank	#			1	4	13	4	14
CBS	views	8.111	9.592	9.800	9.760	9.200	9.525	9.900
diff fr	actual		-1.481	-1.689	-1.649	-1.089	-1.414	-1.789
rank	#			9	8	2	4	11
CBS	A18-49	2.2	2.5	2.8	2.9	2.6	2.5	2.5
diff fr	actual		-0.3	-0.6	-0.7	-0.4	-0.3	-0.3
rank	#			9	11	6	3	3
NBC	views	7.574	7.862	9.200	7.950	7.890	8.625	8.600
diff fr	actual		-0.288	-1.626	-0.376	-0.316	-1.051	-1.026
rank	#			15	5	3	13	12
NBC	A18-49	2.5	2.5	2.9	3.0	2.6	2.9	2.7
diff fr	actual		0.0	-0.4	-0.5	-0.1	-0.4	-0.2
rank	#			11	13	3	11	8
FOX	views	17.816	15.039	17.231	15.500	13.671	14.145	16.700
diff fr	actual		2.778	0.585	2.316	4.145	3.671	1.116
rank	#			2	5	15	13	3
FOX	A18-49	6.9	5.8	7.0	5.0	5.1	5.4	6.3
diff fr	actual		1.1	-0.1	1.9	1.8	1.5	0.6
rank	#			1	15	14	11	4
CW	views	2.338	2.286	2.450	2.160	2.450	2.055	2.050
diff fr	actual		0.052	-0.112	0.178	-0.112	0.283	0.288
rank	#			3	6	3	11	12
CW	A18-49	0.9	1.1	1.3	0.9	1.1	1.3	1.1
diff fr	actual		-0.2	-0.4	0.0	-0.2	-0.4	-0.2
rank	#			13	1	7	13	7
MNT	views	1.202	1.173	1.250	1.150	1.200	1.225	1.500
diff fr	actual		0.030	-0.048	0.052	0.002	-0.023	-0.298
rank	#			5	7	1	3	14
MNT	A18-49	0.5	0.5	0.7	0.4	0.7	0.6	0.6
diff fr	actual		0.0	-0.2	0.1	-0.2	-0.1	-0.1
rank	#			10	3	10	3	3
rank	tot			80	83	89	92	98
final	ranking			6	7	8	9	10

		ACTUAL	AVERAGE	tvfn300	obveeus	tvratjk	lopez	deborah
ABC	views	8.094	7.575	7.225	7.200	8.758	7.000	7.342
diff fr	actual		0.519	0.869	0.894	-0.664	1.094	0.752
rank	#			11	13	8	14	9
ABC	A18-49	2.7	2.6	2.3	2.5	2.7	2.6	2.6
diff fr	actual		0.1	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.1
rank	#			14	12	1	4	4
CBS	views	8.111	11.227	9.825	11.500	12.012	10.945	10.450
diff fr	actual		-3.116	-1.714	-3.389	-3.901	-2.834	-2.339
rank	#			10	14	15	13	12
CBS	A18-49	2.2	3.2	2.5	3.2	3.5	3.1	2.9
diff fr	actual		-1.0	-0.3	-1.0	-1.3	-0.9	-0.7
rank	#			3	14	15	13	11
NBC	views	7.574	8.185	8.120	8.000	7.120	8.500	9.121
diff fr	actual		-0.611	-0.546	-0.426	0.454	-0.926	-1.547
rank	#			9	6	7	11	14
NBC	A18-49	2.5	2.9	2.8	2.7	3.1	2.6	3.0
diff fr	actual		-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.6	-0.1	-0.5
rank	#			10	8	15	3	13
FOX	views	17.816	15.345	15.190	13.975	17.544	15.000	14.862
diff fr	actual		2.471	2.626	3.841	0.272	2.816	2.954
rank	#			6	14	1	7	9
FOX	A18-49	6.9	5.9	6.0	6.0	6.4	6.0	5.3
diff fr	actual		1.0	0.9	0.9	0.5	0.9	1.6
rank	#			5	5	3	5	12
CW	views	2.338	2.246	2.355	2.250	1.984	2.100	2.650
diff fr	actual		0.092	-0.017	0.088	0.354	0.238	-0.312
rank	#			1	2	15	9	14
CW	A18-49	0.9	1.2	1.2	1.0	1.1	1.0	1.6
diff fr	actual		-0.3	-0.3	-0.1	-0.2	-0.1	-0.7
rank	#			12	2	7	2	15
MNT	views	1.202	1.023	1.350	0.950	1.000		1.120
diff fr	actual		0.179	-0.148	0.252	0.202	1.202	0.082
rank	#			9	13	11	15	8
MNT	A18-49	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.4	0.7		0.6
diff fr	actual		-0.1	-0.2	0.1	-0.2	0.5	-0.1
rank	#			10	3	10	15	3
rank	tot			100	106	108	111	124
final	ranking			11	12	13	14	15

  

quote:

I'm looking forward to the May Sweeps game which all the new programming airing may be harder to forecast.

quote:

Originally posted by Chimera:

quote:

See you all in the May Sweep Prediction Game as Zedman2 defends his title.

Congrats to Zedman2 for winning 1st place!! His always had some of the best insight, and this proves it!

Can we do it like the daily game and hand out silver and bronze as well? That way, game creator dumont and yours truly Chimera can also be recognized for successfully predicting an unpredictable month?

Also, do we have to wait for May sweeps to do it again? Can we do it for every month, especially as the networks start their new shows, March, and especially April, could be interesting prediction months. I know they're not traditional sweeps, but this year they will be extremely important, showing which network has the best "come back from the strike" strategy. What do you think dumont?

quote:

Originally posted by Chimera:

quote:

I'm looking forward to the May Sweeps game which all the new programming airing may be harder to forecast.

Congrats again Zedman! I asked dumont in the other thread if he will consider doing another game for April, which is when the networks will start most of their returning shows. By May most will already be in place, whereas April will really be the month that shows trends for the returning series.

quote:

Originally posted by Chimera:

quote:

See you all in the May Sweep Prediction Game as Zedman2 defends his title.

Congrats to Zedman2 for winning 1st place!! His always had some of the best insight, and this proves it!

Can we do it like the daily game and hand out silver and bronze as well? That way, game creator dumont and yours truly Chimera can also be recognized for successfully predicting an unpredictable month?

Also, do we have to wait for May sweeps to do it again? Can we do it for every month, especially as the networks start their new shows, March, and especially April, could be interesting prediction months. I know they're not traditional sweeps, but this year they will be extremely important, showing which network has the best "come back from the strike" strategy. What do you think dumont?

Start Here

quote:

Originally posted by dumont:
February Sweep Prediction Game

It is probably fait accompli that FOX will win the February Sweep, but how well will they do? Will American Idol plus Super Bowl equal an all-time February Sweep record-breaking result?

And now, with ABC, CBS and NBC now all tied up in the A18-49 season-to-date numbers, expect an absolute cat-fight for second place. I fully expect each of the networks has a few tricks up their sleeves...a previously unscheduled "fresh" episode, special, or power theatrical. Look at how bunched up the numbers are for the current 2007-08 season-to-date (up to the end of Week 17 last Sunday):

2007-08 Season-to-Date (17 weeks
NET   VIEWERS 18-49
-------------------
CBS   11.480   3.3
FOX    9.670   3.6
ABC    9.910   3.3
NBC    8.830   3.3
 CW    2.700   1.1
MNT    1.080   0.4
  

Even the fight for fifth will be a closer race this year as the surging MyNetworkTV nips at the heels of the faltering CW.

Enquiring minds may want to know how did the networks fare in the February Sweep last season? And remember, CBS had the Super Bowl last year. Here are the results from last season:

2007 February Sweep Results
NET   VIEWERS 18-49
-------------------
CBS   15.252   4.9
FOX   12.740   5.2
ABC   10.238   3.8
NBC    8.548   2.9
 CW    3.343   1.3
MNT    0.697   0.3
  

So now it's your turn. Using the template below, state your predicted viewer and A18-49 averages for each of the six networks. As the Sweep progresses, check under last nights results for my nightly Sweep reporting to see how you are faring with your prediction. When the sweep is over, I'll get Douglas or TV-aholic to help me score it (like they do in the daily game) so that the person who was closest at predicting the 12 Sweep result numbers will take the crown as the very first Sweep Master (perhaps TV-aholic can design a nioe graphic for the award? a golden broom?).

My 2008 February Sweep Prediction is:
NET   VIEWERS  18-49
--------------------
ABC    ??.??    ??.?
CBS    ??.??    ??.?
NBC    ??.??    ??.?
FOX    ??.??    ??.?
 CW    ??.??    ??.?
MNT    ??.??    ??.?
  

Good luck to all contestants who enter, and most especially, good luck to the networks who will need it in the days ahead of this strike-addled February Sweep.

The deadline for final entries will be 8:00 AM on Friday February 1st as the very first overnight reports are being relayed across the country.

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