It is probably fait accompli that FOX will win the February Sweep, but how well will they do? Will American Idol plus Super Bowl equal an all-time February Sweep record-breaking result?
And now, with ABC, CBS and NBC now all tied up in the A18-49 season-to-date numbers, expect an absolute cat-fight for second place. I fully expect each of the networks has a few tricks up their sleeves...a previously unscheduled "fresh" episode, special, or power theatrical. Look at how bunched up the numbers are for the current 2007-08 season-to-date (up to the end of Week 17 last Sunday):
2007-08 Season-to-Date (17 weeks
NET VIEWERS 18-49
-------------------
CBS 11.480 3.3
FOX 9.670 3.6
ABC 9.910 3.3
NBC 8.830 3.3
CW 2.700 1.1
MNT 1.080 0.4
Even the fight for fifth will be a closer race this year as the surging MyNetworkTV nips at the heels of the faltering CW.
Enquiring minds may want to know how did the networks fare in the February Sweep last season? And remember, CBS had the Super Bowl last year. Here are the results from last season:
2007 February Sweep Results
NET VIEWERS 18-49
-------------------
CBS 15.252 4.9
FOX 12.740 5.2
ABC 10.238 3.8
NBC 8.548 2.9
CW 3.343 1.3
MNT 0.697 0.3
So now it's your turn. Using the template below, state your predicted viewer and A18-49 averages for each of the six networks. As the Sweep progresses, check under last nights results for my nightly Sweep reporting to see how you are faring with your prediction. When the sweep is over, I'll get Douglas or TV-aholic to help me score it (like they do in the daily game) so that the person who was closest at predicting the 12 Sweep result numbers will take the crown as the very first Sweep Master (perhaps TV-aholic can design a nioe graphic for the award? a golden broom?).
My 2008 February Sweep Prediction is:
NET VIEWERS 18-49
--------------------
ABC ??.?? ??.?
CBS ??.?? ??.?
NBC ??.?? ??.?
FOX ??.?? ??.?
CW ??.?? ??.?
MNT ??.?? ??.?
Good luck to all contestants who enter, and most especially, good luck to the networks who will need it in the days ahead of this strike-addled February Sweep.
The deadline for final entries will be 8:00 AM on Friday February 1st as the very first overnight reports are being relayed across the country.
I'll get the game going with a first cut of my predictions, with rationale set out below:
My 2008 February Sweep Prediction is:
NET VIEWERS 18-49
--------------------
CBS 9.500 2.2
FOX 16.275 6.5
ABC 9.200 2.8
NBC 7.900 2.5
CW 2.150 1.0
MNT 1.350 0.7
My projected Sweep ranking on the young adult demo is: 1. FOX, 2. ABC, 3. NBC, 4. CBS, 5. CW, and 6. MNT.
FOX will reach an all-time network high in the February Sweep with its combo of American Idol and football, plus a schedule put together by Mr. Reilly that doesn't have a single weak spot in it. FOX will win every Tuesday and Wednesday, along with most of the Saturday night races.
ABC will come second driven by strong Thursday nights, a big Oscar number that will give it a Sunday night advantage once averaged over the whole month, and a small Monday improvement with the return of Samantha Who.
NBC will come third by winning Mondays and Fridays, and being the most (surprisingly) improved network.
CBS will come in fourth, controlling no nights, and with too much encore programming being overtaken by originals on the other networks.
The CW will come in fifth, eeking out a low 2 million viewership and 1.0 in the demo, hampered by weak Monday and Sunday numbers.
And finally, MyNetworkTV will get closer to CW territory, propelled by a few time period advantages over The CW on Monday nights, Tuesdays at 8-9 pm and Wednesdays at 9-10 pm.
My 2008 February Sweep Prediction is: NET VIEWERS 18-49 -------------------- CBS 9.900 2.5 FOX 16.700 6.3 ABC 7.600 2.3 NBC 8.600 2.7 CW 2.050 1.1 MNT 1.500 0.6
My 2008 February Sweep Prediction is:
NET VIEWERS 18-49
--------------------
FOX 15.500 5.0
CBS 9.760 2.9
ABC 8.420 2.8
NBC 7.950 3.0
CW 2.160 0.9
MNT 1.150 0.4
Dumont,
