I am wondering if it will be that high (50M)? Still, it is as close to a "sure thing" as you can get. The show has a following of such measure that a box office disaster would almost seem unfathomable. Even if it underperforms at the box office, I'd imagine the dvd sales would make up for a bit of the disappointment. In any case, the show is so cemented in the TV culture, that it would probably shake off a movie failure without much damage.
Hey, even Kelly Clarkson recovered from, "From Justin to Kelly."
I'm not as good at predicting movie grosses as I am at forecasting Nielsens, but based on previous theatrical movie releases arising from or preceding ongoing tv series, the season following the release has always seen a dip in households/viewers.
If The Simpsons bounces up this season (and based on the strong numbers last night, it just might), it will be a first time that this has happened in the history of theatrical films derived from or preceding ongoing tv series:
Movies Based-on / Preceding Ongoing Network TV Series
Dragnet (September 1954) – the very first example of this type of ongoing tv series to theatrical cross-over Box Office Rentals: $4.75m Television Ratings (NBC): 1953-54 season: 53.2HH, 13.8m viewers (avg), (ranked #2 behind I Love Lucy) 1954-55 season: 42.1HH, 12.9m viewers (avg), (ranked #3 behind I Love Lucy & The Jackie Gleason Show)
Flipper (August 1963) & Flipper’s New Adventure (June 1964) – both Flipper features preceded the 1964-1968 tv series. Box Office Rentals: 1. Flipper 2. Flipper’s New Adventure Television Ratings (NBC): 1964-65 season: 23.4HH, 12.3m viewers (ranked #25)
Batman (July 1966) Box Office Rentals: Television Ratings (ABC): 1965-66 season: - 27.0HH, 14.5m viewers (Thursday episode ranked #5) - 24.7HH, 13.3m viewers (Wednesday episode ranked #10) 1966-67 season: - Wednesday and Thursday episodes no longer ranked in the top 30
Buck Rogers in the 25th Century (September 1979) - feature release of pilot preceded the 1979-1981 tv series. Television Ratings (NBC): 1979-1980 season: 16.3HH (ranked #61)
Battlestar Galactica (May 1979 re-cut theatrical version of September 1978 pilot)Television Ratings (ABC): 1978-1979 season: 20.5HH (ranked #24) 1979-1980 season: 15.4HH (ranked #71 as “Galactica 1980”)
The Simpsons Movie Television Ratings (FOX) 2006-07 season: 4.5HH (ranked #19, 8.6m viewers)
I haven't included cable features from ongoing series (Star Trek: Next Generation and South Park: Bigger, Longer and Uncut because my rating information on cablers is spottier. If I have overlooked other theatricals linked into ongoing tv series, please feel free to add to the list.
quote:
Originally posted by Hawk-eye: I am wondering if it will be that high (50M)? Still, it is as close to a "sure thing" as you can get. The show has a following of such measure that a box office disaster would almost seem unfathomable. Even if it underperforms at the box office, I'd imagine the dvd sales would make up for a bit of the disappointment. In any case, the show is so cemented in the TV culture, that it would probably shake off a movie failure without much damage.
Hey, even Kelly Clarkson recovered from, "From Justin to Kelly."
Put me down for $42 million. I think some people are going to wonder what's really in the movie that can't wait until the DVD for.
The "X-Files" movie really was a total scam. They should have had either some new info or a real Mulder/Scully smooch scene. For the "24" movies, audiences will demand either more grphic torture and/or more nekkid Kiefer Sutherland.
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