One thing you can say about ML is that it was very conistent with its ratings. If you just told me every week what GW and Numbers ratings were I could very accurately predict the ML ratings.
Originally posted by Twins12: One thing you can say about ML is that it was very conistent with its ratings. If you just told me every week what GW and Numbers ratings were I could very accurately predict the ML ratings.
It was certainly stable on total viewers, moreso than (almost?) anything else this season. What did it in in the end was that awful demo drop after the strike. The audience age shifted.
I'm really curious to see how badly the new series does in that slot. What ever happened to turning Friday into an event night ala X Files?
total eclipse - true, Fever was indeed the best ep. I'm just glad things ended so gracefully and not on a shocking cliffhanger. Despite massive grass roots efforts and reported negotiations going on with Silver and other nets, I doubt ML will be coming back.
Thank you, Robert. And to the many disappointed fans...sorry about that.
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Originally posted by robert: BTW i didn't yet congratulate Marc on predicting the cancelation of Moonlight. Well done Total Eclipse, what's Matt Roush saying now?
Originally posted by Red: Ghost Whisperer drop is predictable since it has done the same thing for 3 straight seasons. Solid fall-winter bounce-spring decline. Looking at the household ratings and shares at zap2it, Ghost Whisperer had an 11 household share, right at season average for new episodes, and the same as Numbers last night. The 8 share in 18-49 is a tenth off of normal, but again, higher than Numb3rs 7 share was last night. The only difference is there are fewer people actually sitting home watching tv on a mid-May Friday night, especially at 8PM. As long as the relative household share remains, as it has, I suspect it'll go back up in the fall like it has the past two seasons.
...and end up where by the end of next season?
Everything you say here is true and I'm for an analytical approach, but if you look at what GW and NUMB3RS did last year, wouldn't it have to be concluded that GW is showing more weakness esp since NUMB3RS was essentially self starting this year as opposed to prior years?
I'm not with any of these shows, but it seems to me that at some point a net has to look beyond issues like overall declines on the nite and say how can WE turn around OUR slide even if we are winning the nite, etc? This of course was the reason that led me to conclude MOONLIGHT would be cancelled and new material put into the nite. And despite a more likely than not rebound by GW in the fall or winter, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if GW is on the hot seat next year this time. NUMB3RS, on the other hand, I would expect to be at about 80% chance to last beyond next year. And I say that having watched NUMBERS last night for the first time all year and concluding its tank was getting a bit low as well.
When projecting ahead, keep in mind COLD CASE has "friday nite" written all over it and despite its demo problems its ability to do TA would seemingly bring a sufficient fri demo.
Posts: 2803 | Location: Western Pennsylvania | Registered: 13 December 2006
Originally posted by Bruce: And despite a more likely than not rebound by GW in the fall or winter, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if GW is on the hot seat next year this time.
How many shows are canceled in their 4th season before they can reach 100 episodes? Unless GW completely bombs next year (and it won't), it will be renewed for a 5th.
Posts: 636 | Location: NYC | Registered: 02 November 2007
I agree that Cold Case is probably next to join the Friday night lineup when GW and whatever is on at 9 is done. I doubt they would move any of the CSI's or Criminal Minds there. When their ratings dip below an acceptable rating on a Monday to Thursday slot, they would just end it.
In my opinion, the best move for CBS would be to debut the spin off show The Tower and place it right behind CC mid-season and check how the numbers blend and if there is a flow between the two shows. If so, create a two hour block on Friday of CC and The Tower, elimininating the need to worry about that block for at least a year so they can focus on other things.
quote:
Originally posted by Bruce:
...and end up where by the end of next season?
Everything you say here is true and I'm for an analytical approach, but if you look at what GW and NUMB3RS did last year, wouldn't it have to be concluded that GW is showing more weakness esp since NUMB3RS was essentially self starting this year as opposed to prior years?
I'm not with any of these shows, but it seems to me that at some point a net has to look beyond issues like overall declines on the nite and say how can WE turn around OUR slide even if we are winning the nite, etc? This of course was the reason that led me to conclude MOONLIGHT would be cancelled and new material put into the nite. And despite a more likely than not rebound by GW in the fall or winter, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if GW is on the hot seat next year this time. NUMB3RS, on the other hand, I would expect to be at about 80% chance to last beyond next year. And I say that having watched NUMBERS last night for the first time all year and concluding its tank was getting a bit low as well.
When projecting ahead, keep in mind COLD CASE has "friday nite" written all over it and despite its demo problems its ability to do TA would seemingly bring a sufficient fri demo.
Originally posted by Bruce: Everything you say here is true and I'm for an analytical approach, but if you look at what GW and NUMB3RS did last year, wouldn't it have to be concluded that GW is showing more weakness esp since NUMB3RS was essentially self starting this year as opposed to prior years?
I'm not with any of these shows, but it seems to me that at some point a net has to look beyond issues like overall declines on the nite and say how can WE turn around OUR slide even if we are winning the nite, etc? This of course was the reason that led me to conclude MOONLIGHT would be cancelled and new material put into the nite. And despite a more likely than not rebound by GW in the fall or winter, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if GW is on the hot seat next year this time. NUMB3RS, on the other hand, I would expect to be at about 80% chance to last beyond next year. And I say that having watched NUMBERS last night for the first time all year and concluding its tank was getting a bit low as well.
Well, yes and no. Yes, I don't think anything is assured. They will have to prove themselves next year relative to whatever other success CBS has. However, in the bigger picture I think this is a question about how much longer is this night going to be viable to program with scripted material, at least under the current way in which ratings are judged? The answer to that I think provides how much longer these shows will be around. It's certainly possible they could scrap them and say they've run out of juice and they are the problem but the consistent declines in all time slots for all shows tell me this is less about the shows and more about the night.
Also, in terms of the GW vs. Numb3rs topic a quick look will show that Numb3rs has actually declined a bit more in total viewership over the last several seasons, and by a similar margin in the demo. So I also don't really agree with the suggestion that it is showing a larger relative decline. Though, I will say that Numb3rs started from an even larger base.
The shows that have aired each of the past three seasons plus Close to Home/Moonlight for comparisons sake. Don't have accurate demo numbers for this season though.
2005-2006 Season Ghost Whisperer: 10.2 million / 2.9 18-49 Close to Home: 10.4 million / 2.8 18-49 Numb3rs: 11.7 million / 3.3 18-49 20/20: 08.0 million / 2.6 18-49 Deal or No Deal (Friday): 11.6 million / 3.5 18-49 1 vs. 100: DID NOT AIR Las Vegas: 10.7 million / 3.6 18-49 *(Not all episodes aired on Friday) Dateline (Friday): 08.1 million / 2.3 18-49
2006-2007 Season Ghost Whisperer: 09.9 million / 3.0 18-49 Close to Home: 10.3 million / 2.5 18-49 Numb3rs: 10.5 million / 2.9 18-49 20/20: 07.5 million / 2.4 18-49 Deal or No Deal (Friday): 11.4 million / 3.1 18-49 1 vs. 100: 09.6 million / 2.8 18-49 Las Vegas: 09.0 million / 2.9 18-49 Dateline (Friday): DID NOT AIR
2007-2008 Season Ghost Whisperer: 08.7 million Moonlight: 07.5 million Numb3rs: 09.1 million 20/20: 06.5 million Deal or No Deal (Friday): 09.7 million 1 vs. 100: 08.0 million Las Vegas: 08.5 million Dateline (Friday): 07.2 million
Of course since there was a strike this season, leading to more repeats and fewer originals being factored in, that drags the averages down a bit more than they would have been otherwise but the across the board declines for everything are apparent, so I don't think this is a question just about any one show. The bottom line is I think next season will be important not simply for the futures of Ghost Whisperer and Numbers, but for the short term future of Friday night. I don't know if I see CBS contiuing to launch scripted if GW and Numbers aren't able to survive past next season and no other networks manage success either.
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When projecting ahead, keep in mind COLD CASE has "friday nite" written all over it and despite its demo problems its ability to do TA would seemingly bring a sufficient fri demo.
Hmm, I don't know about this. I do see it making sense on Friday nights, but I'm not sure if CBS will work hard to extend the life of it in lieu of Ghost Whisperer or Numbers if they don't think it can pull its weight Sunday - Thursday. It's been doing mid 2's on Sunday nights in the demo and it is not an in-house production, unlike the other two, it's a Warner Bros. show. So, no money for the parent company from foreign broadcast, syndication or DVD sales. Where's the incentive to keep it instead?
This message has been edited. Last edited by: Red,
Originally posted by Zitrone: How many shows are canceled in their 4th season before they can reach 100 episodes? Unless GW completely bombs next year (and it won't), it will be renewed for a 5th.
Depends on who owns the series. If its a Network owned show, they will get that 5th year. If its produced by an outside company, you never know.
Originally posted by Bruce: And despite a more likely than not rebound by GW in the fall or winter, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if GW is on the hot seat next year this time.
How many shows are canceled in their 4th season before they can reach 100 episodes? Unless GW completely bombs next year (and it won't), it will be renewed for a 5th.
I had assumed GW was an ABC production, which a little research shows it was but the syndication deal recently put in place for GW was done through CBS Television Distribution.
Posts: 2803 | Location: Western Pennsylvania | Registered: 13 December 2006
Originally posted by Bruce: And despite a more likely than not rebound by GW in the fall or winter, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if GW is on the hot seat next year this time.
How many shows are canceled in their 4th season before they can reach 100 episodes? Unless GW completely bombs next year (and it won't), it will be renewed for a 5th.
I had assumed GW was an ABC production, which a little research shows it was but the syndication deal recently put in place for GW was done through CBS Television Distribution.
It's a co-production. Same deal they have with Criminal Minds. I believe CBS demanded it before they picked it up in 05.
Originally posted by Bruce: Everything you say here is true and I'm for an analytical approach, but if you look at what GW and NUMB3RS did last year, wouldn't it have to be concluded that GW is showing more weakness esp since NUMB3RS was essentially self starting this year as opposed to prior years?
I'm not with any of these shows, but it seems to me that at some point a net has to look beyond issues like overall declines on the nite and say how can WE turn around OUR slide even if we are winning the nite, etc? This of course was the reason that led me to conclude MOONLIGHT would be cancelled and new material put into the nite. And despite a more likely than not rebound by GW in the fall or winter, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if GW is on the hot seat next year this time. NUMB3RS, on the other hand, I would expect to be at about 80% chance to last beyond next year. And I say that having watched NUMBERS last night for the first time all year and concluding its tank was getting a bit low as well.
Well, yes and no. Yes, I don't think anything is assured. They will have to prove themselves next year relative to whatever other success CBS has. However, in the bigger picture I think this is a question about how much longer is this night going to be viable to program with scripted material, at least under the current way in which ratings are judged? The answer to that I think provides how much longer these shows will be around. It's certainly possible they could scrap them and say they've run out of juice and they are the problem but the consistent declines in all time slots for all shows tell me this is less about the shows and more about the night.
Also, in terms of the GW vs. Numb3rs topic a quick look will show that Numb3rs has actually declined a bit more in total viewership over the last several seasons, and by a similar margin in the demo. So I also don't really agree with the suggestion that it is showing a larger relative decline. Though, I will say that Numb3rs started from an even larger base.
The shows that have aired each of the past three seasons plus Close to Home/Moonlight for comparisons sake. Don't have accurate demo numbers for this season though.
2005-2006 Season Ghost Whisperer: 10.2 million / 2.9 18-49 Close to Home: 10.4 million / 2.8 18-49 Numb3rs: 11.7 million / 3.3 18-49 20/20: 08.0 million / 2.6 18-49 Deal or No Deal (Friday): 11.6 million / 3.5 18-49 1 vs. 100: DID NOT AIR Las Vegas: 10.7 million / 3.6 18-49 *(Not all episodes aired on Friday) Dateline (Friday): 08.1 million / 2.3 18-49
2006-2007 Season Ghost Whisperer: 09.9 million / 3.0 18-49 Close to Home: 10.3 million / 2.5 18-49 Numb3rs: 10.5 million / 2.9 18-49 20/20: 07.5 million / 2.4 18-49 Deal or No Deal (Friday): 11.4 million / 3.1 18-49 1 vs. 100: 09.6 million / 2.8 18-49 Las Vegas: 09.0 million / 2.9 18-49 Dateline (Friday): DID NOT AIR
2007-2008 Season Ghost Whisperer: 08.7 million Moonlight: 07.5 million Numb3rs: 09.1 million 20/20: 06.5 million Deal or No Deal (Friday): 09.7 million 1 vs. 100: 08.0 million Las Vegas: 08.5 million Dateline (Friday): 07.2 million
Of course since there was a strike this season, leading to more repeats and fewer originals being factored in, that drags the averages down a bit more than they would have been otherwise but the across the board declines for everything are apparent, so I don't think this is a question just about any one show. The bottom line is I think next season will be important not simply for the futures of Ghost Whisperer and Numbers, but for the short term future of Friday night. I don't know if I see CBS contiuing to launch scripted if GW and Numbers aren't able to survive past next season and no other networks manage success either.
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When projecting ahead, keep in mind COLD CASE has "friday nite" written all over it and despite its demo problems its ability to do TA would seemingly bring a sufficient fri demo.
Hmm, I don't know about this. I do see it making sense on Friday nights, but I'm not sure if CBS will work hard to extend the life of it in lieu of Ghost Whisperer or Numbers if they don't think it can pull its weight Sunday - Thursday. It's been doing mid 2's on Sunday nights in the demo and it is not an in-house production, unlike the other two, it's a Warner Bros. show. So, no money for the parent company from foreign broadcast, syndication or DVD sales. Where's the incentive to keep it instead?
Red, this is fine, but a few things:
I was referring to GW and NUMB3RS for this year and I want to emphasize my words "especially since NUMB3RS was essentially self starting this year as opposed to prior years." Looking beyond the numbers to the circumstances to see which show looked better for the future.
Yes, I know well NUMB3RS had been in some decline previous to this year.
On this year's demos, info at this forum shows of the apparently 18 weeks the shows ran GW won the demo 10 times, NUMB3RS 6 times, and a few draws. It looks like the season averages would be about even.
I pointed out in another post that I thought GW was owned by ABC, which it was but CBS TV Dist cut the recent syndication deal.
On COLD CASE, it ended in the mid 2's but had a significant portion of the year where it was at or above 3 in the demo and I think the jury is still out on whether it is cooked to the point where it would not be viable on fridays in some out year. I think CC is something of a mystery right now.
Posts: 2803 | Location: Western Pennsylvania | Registered: 13 December 2006
Originally posted by Bruce: Red, this is fine, but a few things:
I was referring to GW and NUMB3RS for this year and I want to emphasize my words "especially since NUMB3RS was essentially self starting this year as opposed to prior years." Looking beyond the numbers to the circumstances to see which show looked better for the future.
Yes, I know well NUMB3RS had been in some decline previous to this year.
On this year's demos, info at this forum shows of the apparently 18 weeks the shows ran GW won the demo 10 times, NUMB3RS 6 times, and a few draws. It looks like the season averages would be about even.
That's cool, but just looking at this season from last season, I'd still make the same point. Perhaps the weaker leadin even allows for a more accurate comparison since GW has always had to self-start. So with the drops y2y being 1.2 million for GW and 1.4 million for Numbers, and roughly the same in the demo, I just don't see a big difference.
Anyhow, I always enjoy these types of discussions so thanks for indulging me.
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On COLD CASE, it ended in the mid 2's but had a significant portion of the year where it was at or above 3 in the demo and I think the jury is still out on whether it is cooked to the point where it would not be viable on fridays in some out year. I think CC is something of a mystery right now.
Fair point. I actually expect it to bounce back. I think Big Brother was about the worst leadin possible for it.
Originally posted by Bruce: Red, this is fine, but a few things:
I was referring to GW and NUMB3RS for this year and I want to emphasize my words "especially since NUMB3RS was essentially self starting this year as opposed to prior years." Looking beyond the numbers to the circumstances to see which show looked better for the future.
Yes, I know well NUMB3RS had been in some decline previous to this year.
On this year's demos, info at this forum shows of the apparently 18 weeks the shows ran GW won the demo 10 times, NUMB3RS 6 times, and a few draws. It looks like the season averages would be about even.
That's cool, but just looking at this season from last season, I'd still make the same point. Perhaps the weaker leadin even allows for a more accurate comparison since GW has always had to self-start. So with the drops y2y being 1.2 million for GW and 1.4 million for Numbers, and roughly the same in the demo, I just don't see a big difference.
Anyhow, I always enjoy these types of discussions so thanks for indulging me.
I agree, GW is only suffering because it has always been the anchor. Sure it drew overall a 11mil in S1 to 10mil in S2 to 9mil now but if CBS was willing to move it to a more active night [Tuesdays or Wednesdays] as a bridge [9pm] show the ratings will more than likely spike. It is still improving and has gain some positive buzz from the lead being on TV Guides Sexiest, Peoples Most 100 Beautiful People, to her triumph over negative feedback of her weight. I was so hoping to see this change for the Fall but sadly CBS I guess is to comfortable with stability rather than being proactive.
