Thanks for an excellent analysis as always dumont! Boy, what a tight race for 2nd in viewers. 17,000 viewers after a whole month!
But just to be plain about it, FOX has had an incredible month and is the reason that as a group the broadcast networks are not shown worse drop-off from last year.
Looking at the sweeps demo game, it is clear that FOX surpassed almost everybody's expectations, while CBS underperformed truly everybody's predictions!!
What a month...
quote:
Originally posted by dumont: FOX Cleans Up With Record-Breaking Numbers to End the 2008 February Sweep:
After four weeks of the 2008 February Sweep, FOX has cleaned up against the other networks with a record-breaking first place across all key measures.
The FOX victory was generated by the enormous, record-breaking Super Bowl numbers, the powerhouse American Idol numbers, and reliable ratings strength on every other night.
In the young audience A18-49 demo that advertisers crave for ad placement, FOX finished the Sweep with a 6.86 in A18-49, which rounds to 6.9. This level was just a notch under the high mark of 7.0 in A18-49 that FOX previously established in the 2005 February Sweep.
FOX ended the Sweep with the most nightly wins, having beaten the other networks on 18 nights (includes one tie with NBC), followed by ABC and NBC both with five nightly wins (one NBC win was a tie with FOX) and CBS trailing behind with only a single nightly win (The Grammy Awards). The FOX demo domination was so widespread that the network won every single Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday of the Sweep in the A18-49 demo, plus winning one Thursday and one Sunday. The only night on which FOX could not triumph was Monday.
It was a real donnybrook for second place across demo, households and viewership. In the A18-49 demo, ABC ended up in second place with a 2.7, NBC in third with 2.5, CBS fourth with 2.2, The CW fifth with 0.9 and MyNetworkTV is sixth with 0.5. ABC, NBC, CBS and The CW all hit record A18-49 lows for the February Sweep, while MyNetworkTV showed growth over last year.
In households, FOX triumphed with a record-setting 9.6HH, which was above its previous February Sweep high of 9.3HH in 2005. CBS held on to second place throughout the entire Sweep and finished with a 5.3HH average, while ABC was in third with a 5.1HH average, NBC in fourth with a 4.8HH average, The CW fifth with a 1.5HH average, and MyNetworkTV last with a 0.8HH average. CBS, ABC, NBC and The CW all set record lows in households for the February Sweep, while MyNetworkTV was up over last years benchmark number.
In viewership, the fight for second place saw the ranking change several times over the last few days of the Sweep, but in the end, CBS tenaciously hung on to second place with a 8.111 million viewer average, besting ABC by a mere 17,000 viewers. ABC finished third with 8.094 million viewers, while NBC wasn't too far behind in fourth with 7.574 million viewers. The CW ended the Sweep with a 2.338 million viewer average, and MyNetworkTV was last with a 1.202 million viewer average.
At the end of the Sweep, the two News Corporation networks FOX and MyNetworkTV both finished with solid double-digit improvement over their numbers from last year. All the remaining networks are showing significant double-digit year-over-year declines, with NBC showing the least year-over-year slippage (-13% in demo, -11% in households, and -10% in viewers) while CBS, who were last year's Super Bowl broadcaster, is faring worst (-54% in demo, -43% in households, -48% in viewers) due to its large proportion of encore programming as a result of the writers strike.
After four weeks of Sweep, the six networks showed smaller-than-expected (given the combined effect of the writers strike and increased use of DVR's) year-over-year erosion: the young adult demo down by -14%, households are down by -13% on a year-over-year basis, while viewership is down by -11% year-over-year.
nights nights
demo web demo demo % won won
Rank web 2008 2007 chg 2008 2007
1 FOX 6.86 5.15 33% 18 14
2 ABC 2.68 3.75 -28% 5 6
3 NBC 2.47 2.83 -13% 5
4 CBS 2.24 4.88 -54% 1 8
5 CW 0.90 1.31 -31%
6 MNT 0.46 0.27 70%
total 15.61 18.19 -14% 29 28
nights nights
HH web HH HH HH won won
rank web 2008 2007 chg 2008 2007
1 FOX 9.6 7.4 30% 15 9
2 CBS 5.3 9.2 -43% 5 14
3 ABC 5.1 6.4 -20% 5 4
4 NBC 4.8 5.5 -11% 5 2
5 CW 1.5 2.1 -27%
6 MNT 0.8 0.5 46%
total 27.2 31.1 -13% 30 29
nights nights
viewers web viewers viewers viewers won won
rank web 2008 2007 chg 2008 2007
1 FOX 17.816 12.687 40% 15 9
2 CBS 8.111 15.468 -48% 4 14
3 ABC 8.094 10.055 -20% 5 4
4 NBC 7.574 8.373 -10% 4 1
5 CW 2.338 3.276 -29%
6 MNT 1.202 0.790 52%
total 45.14 50.65 -11% 28 28
This years and last years numbers are based upon final Nielsen numbers except for last nights household numbers which are based upon FAST National data.
SHOW HH A18-49 Viewers A18-34
WIFE SWAP 3.5/5 2.0/5 5,490,000
SUPERNANNY 5.2/8 3.3/8 8,297,000
MEN IN TREES 3.9/7 1.7/5 5,593,000
BIG BROTHER 3.6/6 2.0/5 5,376,000
DEAL OR NO DEAL 5.9/9 2.2/6 9,300,000
LAW AND ORDER: CI 5.6/9 2.2/5 8,219,000
LAW AND ORDER 7.7/13 3.3/9 11,424,000
AMERICAN IDOL 15.7/24 10.5/27 27,549,000
BACK TO YOU (9:30pm) 7.5/12 4.4/11 12,151,000
AMERICA'S NEXT TOP MODEL 2.4/4 2.0/5 3,816,000 2.6/7
PROJECT RUNWAY 2.7/5 2.1/6 3,964,000
Originally posted by Chimera: Thanks for an excellent analysis as always dumont! Boy, what a tight race for 2nd in viewers. 17,000 viewers after a whole month!
But just to be plain about it, FOX has had an incredible month and is the reason that as a group the broadcast networks are not shown worse drop-off from last year.
Looking at the sweeps demo game, it is clear that FOX surpassed almost everybody's expectations, while CBS underperformed truly everybody's predictions!!
What a month...
I think the biggest difference was NBC's minor surge with all of its original programming. It was unexpected given how bad they did with their shows in the fall.
ABC did doge a few bullets by pulling DH and Greys from their normal time slots and pacing in the lower Friday night slots. EM:HE did hold the sunday number up better than expected. LOST really helped on the averages.
CBS was doing well with its all repeat strategy. It was the New shows that was bringing it down (Captain, BB, Jericho, P10). Some of the repeats were a little lower than expected, but after 3 months of them, they are pretty close to Summer levels. Should we really have expected more?
FOX was the only winner of the sweeps. TO call any of the other three the #2 Network for the sweeps is an injustice. Kind of like having a photo finish for 2nd place in a NASCAR race, but you are still 10 laps down from the winner.
Now, the fun begins in March. NEW SHows are back and most of our favorites will produce SOME new episodes. So, here is to FORGETING about a un-entertaining, Writers Strike filled New Year and lets have a St. Patricks Day Celebration with the return of the first shows back from the strike. HIMYM, BBT, 2.5 Men.
"Scrubs" Longtime NBC comedy "Scrubs" is heading to rival network ABC.
Sources say ABC is in negotiations to pick up 18 episodes of the show from ABC Studios, which has produced the series for NBC since 2001.
A broadcast show switching networks, though often discussed during contract renewals, is a rare event. Previous network jumpers include "JAG" (NBC to CBS) and "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" (The WB to UPN).
The writers strike cut short NBC's 18-episode final season order for the Zach Braff medical comedy to 12 episodes. Sources say the network has been reluctant to order additional episodes for next fall, citing the fact that it already has some remaining originals in the can. NBC reportedly floated various end game scenarios to producers, including ordering one final episode, or producing the remaining episodes direct to DVD.
Details of the ABC deal are still being hammered out as contracts for most cast members and writers have not been picked up beyond the current season.
After struggling in recent years to launch a hit comedy, ABC scored this season with freshman "Samantha Who." The "Scrubs" pickup will give ABC another half-hour title with a built-in audience, plus makes financial sense for parent company Disney since ABC Studios produces the show.
Steve McPherson, ABC's president of entertainment, has history with "Scrubs," having developed the show during his tenure overseeing the studio when it was known as Touchstone Television. McPherson also has been vocal about his intent to pick up the show should NBC drop it.
It's been a rocky ride for "Scrubs" on NBC. The network has repeatedly shifted the critically praised but modestly rated show around its schedule. For the past two seasons, NBC also waited until the 11th hour to pick up the comedy series with partial season orders.
Most recently, "Scrubs" has aired as part of NBC's Thursday night lineup along with "The Office," "My Name Is Earl" and "30 Rock," where the medical comedy was often the lowest-rated of the bunch.
Zedman2 Wins Golden Broom in Inaugural Sweep Prediction Game With the completion of the 2008 February Sweep, we have our very first winner of the Sweep Prediction Game:
*********** * zedman2 * ***********
Congratulations to Zedman2 who now possesses the Golden Broom, awarded to the Master of the Sweep until the next Sweep Prediction Game in May 2008.
Zedman won with predictions that were consistently close to actual, even though he was first ranked on only one measure (CBS viewers). The predictions of Zedman2 shall forthwith be listened to with great care by media buyers and network affiliates across the country looking for sage, predictive prognostications.
Thank you to all who participated. I have published the final standings down in the Demo Talk folder of the TV Round Table section.
Originally posted by lopez: 'Scrubs' moving to ABC By James Hibberd
Feb 29, 2008 hr/photos/stylus/18165.jpg
"Scrubs" Longtime NBC comedy "Scrubs" is heading to rival network ABC.
Sources say ABC is in negotiations to pick up 18 episodes of the show from ABC Studios, which has produced the series for NBC since 2001.
A broadcast show switching networks, though often discussed during contract renewals, is a rare event. Previous network jumpers include "JAG" (NBC to CBS) and "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" (The WB to UPN).
The writers strike cut short NBC's 18-episode final season order for the Zach Braff medical comedy to 12 episodes. Sources say the network has been reluctant to order additional episodes for next fall, citing the fact that it already has some remaining originals in the can. NBC reportedly floated various end game scenarios to producers, including ordering one final episode, or producing the remaining episodes direct to DVD.
Details of the ABC deal are still being hammered out as contracts for most cast members and writers have not been picked up beyond the current season.
After struggling in recent years to launch a hit comedy, ABC scored this season with freshman "Samantha Who." The "Scrubs" pickup will give ABC another half-hour title with a built-in audience, plus makes financial sense for parent company Disney since ABC Studios produces the show.
Steve McPherson, ABC's president of entertainment, has history with "Scrubs," having developed the show during his tenure overseeing the studio when it was known as Touchstone Television. McPherson also has been vocal about his intent to pick up the show should NBC drop it.
It's been a rocky ride for "Scrubs" on NBC. The network has repeatedly shifted the critically praised but modestly rated show around its schedule. For the past two seasons, NBC also waited until the 11th hour to pick up the comedy series with partial season orders.
Most recently, "Scrubs" has aired as part of NBC's Thursday night lineup along with "The Office," "My Name Is Earl" and "30 Rock," where the medical comedy was often the lowest-rated of the bunch.
Originally posted by lopez: 'Scrubs' moving to ABC By James Hibberd
Feb 29, 2008 hr/photos/stylus/18165.jpg
"Scrubs" Longtime NBC comedy "Scrubs" is heading to rival network ABC.
Sources say ABC is in negotiations to pick up 18 episodes of the show from ABC Studios, which has produced the series for NBC since 2001.
A broadcast show switching networks, though often discussed during contract renewals, is a rare event. Previous network jumpers include "JAG" (NBC to CBS) and "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" (The WB to UPN).
The writers strike cut short NBC's 18-episode final season order for the Zach Braff medical comedy to 12 episodes. Sources say the network has been reluctant to order additional episodes for next fall, citing the fact that it already has some remaining originals in the can. NBC reportedly floated various end game scenarios to producers, including ordering one final episode, or producing the remaining episodes direct to DVD.
Details of the ABC deal are still being hammered out as contracts for most cast members and writers have not been picked up beyond the current season.
After struggling in recent years to launch a hit comedy, ABC scored this season with freshman "Samantha Who." The "Scrubs" pickup will give ABC another half-hour title with a built-in audience, plus makes financial sense for parent company Disney since ABC Studios produces the show.
Steve McPherson, ABC's president of entertainment, has history with "Scrubs," having developed the show during his tenure overseeing the studio when it was known as Touchstone Television. McPherson also has been vocal about his intent to pick up the show should NBC drop it.
It's been a rocky ride for "Scrubs" on NBC. The network has repeatedly shifted the critically praised but modestly rated show around its schedule. For the past two seasons, NBC also waited until the 11th hour to pick up the comedy series with partial season orders.
Most recently, "Scrubs" has aired as part of NBC's Thursday night lineup along with "The Office," "My Name Is Earl" and "30 Rock," where the medical comedy was often the lowest-rated of the bunch.
It's not official yet.
What idiots. First Jim. Now this. Is ABC plotting some sort of massive comedy comeback next year?
I am so upset about Men in Trees, This is really a good show and the cast is really much better this season. I only started watching it because of VLIS and now it is probably over. ARGHHH!
Posts: 105 | Location: upstate new york | Registered: 07 November 2006
Originally posted by dumont: Zedman2 Wins Golden Broom in Inaugural Sweep Prediction Game
Congratulations Zedman2!
Thanks for the contest and for all the work tracking Sweeps month ratings, Dumont. I'm happy to say that I wasn't dead last in the contest. The only network I was good at predicting was CW. I can live with that.
Originally posted by mushu_jj: What idiots. First Jim. Now this. Is ABC plotting some sort of massive comedy comeback next year?
IMO, Dirty Sexy Money belongs on the list of unwarranted renewals as well. Maybe it belongs on the list even more since it will never make syndication, so that financial windfall doesn't enter into the decision the way it does with the two comedies.
I'll take this as proof that the WGA strike did mess up development season and that networks are scared to move forward to series with unknown projects.
Originally posted by mushu_jj: What idiots. First Jim. Now this. Is ABC plotting some sort of massive comedy comeback next year?
IMO, Dirty Sexy Money belongs on the list of unwarranted renewals as well. Maybe it belongs on the list even more since it will never make syndication, so that financial windfall doesn't enter into the decision the way it does with the two comedies.
I'll take this as proof that the WGA strike did mess up development season and that networks are scared to move forward to series with unknown projects.
At least DSM is only a freshman series that has put up with some rather pathetic scheduling moves. Jim just won't die. Ditto for Scrubs.
Originally posted by mushu_jj: What idiots. First Jim. Now this. Is ABC plotting some sort of massive comedy comeback next year?
Next thing you know, they give Cavemen a 13 episode order for next season.
The scary thing is, it could actually happen.
Nah. Cavemen is dead. ABC made that clear this January by not scheduling it and they certainly won't now with the strike over. My question is this: who in their right mind picks the likes of Jim, Carpoolers, and Cavemen over a hilarious sitcom like the Knights of Prosperity. That show had potential but ABC screwed it up like everything else. GLo was also better than the current slop, but honestly, I'm kind of glad it was spared another year of pathetic treatment.
