Originally posted by pisher: Travis, you got final half hour #'s for ABC on Monday?
I think some people need to see what's really going on here.
I'll do you one better, pisher
I hope ABC does have the guts to repeat Castle as I'm very interested in how it does sans DWTS, too. As a procedural crime drama it should, theoretically, repeat decently.
Dancing with the Stars 9:45-10:00 - 19.328 million viewers - 12.3/19 HH - 4.0/10 A18-49
Dancing with the Stars 10:00-10:02 - 20.599 million viewers - 13.1/21 HH - 4.5/12 A18-49
The 10:30-11:00 segment is stable enough... the question is, of course, "can ABC do better" at 10pm post-DWTS and, history has shown it pretty much can't, so I support to position that Castle will be around next season... but only from a lesser evil / risk-averse standpoint.
The Nov 30th episode for Castle will be a repeat and ABC was planning to air repeat episodes on Saturdays in December.
Blessings upon you, Travis. This is just what I thought--people finish watching DWTS, which is a long show--they've got stuff to do afterwards. Go to bathroom, brush teeth, walk dog, etc. TV very often stays on. Half-watching Castle, or just using it as background noise. Then once they've fully returned to the set, and noticed yet again that the show is really dull, and Fillion can't be anything other than annoying--zap!
That 2.3 is the real demo. And that's not to say it's a stable number, either. It can and will go lower, if Castle loses the many advantages afforded it by its easy timeslot.
Good enough for a third season pick-up? Only if ABC's midseason goes very badly. But no matter what, it needs the easy timeslot.
This is by no means a 10pm show--the material is very bland. Makes Bones look like Sons of Anarchy by comparison.
Stick it at 8pm, if it's stable and needs no lead-in. Let's see.
Originally posted by pisher: Travis, you got final half hour #'s for ABC on Monday?
I think some people need to see what's really going on here.
I'll do you one better, pisher
I hope ABC does have the guts to repeat Castle as I'm very interested in how it does sans DWTS, too. As a procedural crime drama it should, theoretically, repeat decently.
Dancing with the Stars 9:45-10:00 - 19.328 million viewers - 12.3/19 HH - 4.0/10 A18-49
Dancing with the Stars 10:00-10:02 - 20.599 million viewers - 13.1/21 HH - 4.5/12 A18-49
The 10:30-11:00 segment is stable enough... the question is, of course, "can ABC do better" at 10pm post-DWTS and, history has shown it pretty much can't, so I support to position that Castle will be around next season... but only from a lesser evil / risk-averse standpoint.
The Nov 30th episode for Castle will be a repeat and ABC was planning to air repeat episodes on Saturdays in December.
Blessings upon you, Travis. This is just what I thought--people finish watching DWTS, which is a long show--they've got stuff to do afterwards. Go to bathroom, brush teeth, walk dog, etc. TV very often stays on. Half-watching Castle, or just using it as background noise. Then once they've fully returned to the set, and noticed yet again that the show is really dull, and Fillion can't be anything other than annoying--zap!
That 2.3 is the real demo. And that's not to say it's a stable number, either. It can and will go lower, if Castle loses the many advantages afforded it by its easy timeslot.
Good enough for a third season pick-up? Only if ABC's midseason goes very badly. But no matter what, it needs the easy timeslot.
This is by no means a 10pm show--the material is very bland. Makes Bones look like Sons of Anarchy by comparison.
Stick it at 8pm, if it's stable and needs no lead-in. Let's see.
The show will be renewed for season three:
- One of TV's biggest gainers in the 10 o'clock hour this season, ABC's "Castle" is generating substantial increases over its first-reported numbers through DVR playback, picking up an average 1.7 million viewers and an additional 6-tenths of an Adult 18-49 rating point (+26%) from the initially reported Live + Same Day Numbers to the Live + 7 Day DVR finals.
- On average, "Castle" is greatly improving the time period year to year for ABC, growing its hour over the same nights last year with "Boston Legal" in both Total Viewers (+1.7 million - 10.8 million vs. 9.1 million) and Adults 18-49 (+17% - 2.8/7 vs. 2.4/6).
In terms of repeat results, the November 30th episode will be a repeat, however, the Boston and Manchester ABC affiliates will be carring the Monday night game that evening which will skew results.
I think with Castle, you have to look at the big picture to forecast a renewal.
Fall of 2010 has the whole Dancing with the Stars filling three hours on Monday/Tuesday (I seriously doubt they will ever cut it back and if they do it will be for a comedy so Castle is out of luck), at least one hour of the comedy block coming back on Wednesday, at least two hours coming back on Thursday, Friday will be coming back in a reality show/20/20 lineup, and the whole Sunday lineup is coming back.
That leaves one hour on Monday, two hours on Tuesday and two hours on Wednesday and one hour on Thursday to fill. 6 hours.
My guess is V and Flash Forward are both going to take priority to Castle. Neither of them have had the DWTS lead in and both have had to start off the night at 8 PM (something Castle has never done). So even if ratings settle into similar numbers, Castle has had more chances of success. The fact that Castle is repeating on Saturdays also suggests that ABC isn't happy with the initial audience that has showed up and is trying to do a bigger push to increase the audience. I think that there wouldn't be a need for double repeats except for that reason as it's already been seen that Castle isn't a good repeater.
That leaves 4 hours. A comedy block will probably take one of those hours. 3 hours. If The Deep End or Happy Town hits, that's another hour that is gone.
So Castle's future rests on whether they can get something going mid-season and whether ABC has a good development slate. If either of things happen, then it's not a definate for Castle for being renewed for season 3. In fact, if they do an early renewal for Castle, then it signifies at least to me that they aren't confident in their development at all and they already see warning signs.
Furthermore, ABC has no idea how it reacts out of DWTS. My guess is ABC scheduled it there on purpose because they knew it was lead in dependent. I have a feeling if you move it away, results will be lower as evidenced by the fact that almost every week it loses ratings within the hour. So it's not something that you can slide around the schedule.
So add the few spots for Fall 2010 available, the fact that there are still mid-season contenders that haven't aired yet and I doubt ABC will get rid of everything (they haven't done it before, after all they kept Castle over. ), the fact that ABC will be adding new shows, and the fact that Castle can only be a Monday at 10 PM show and I'm not sure how Castle can be labeled as a guarenteed renewal for season 3.
Good analysis, and of course there's a chance for any underperforming show to come back. We've seen it happen many many times in the past. And we've seen that it almost never works out for the shows that come back. Castle has had more than enough time to find an indisputably sufficient audience to support it. If it hasn't by now, it never will, and that means it's living on borrowed time.
It's not just the big lead-in, but the near-total lack of competition that keeps Castle above 2.0 in the demo (and as we see, not much above it once the DWTS audience is finished drifting off)--if you want first-run programming on Mondays at 10pm, it's Castle, CSI Miami, Jay Leno, or NOTHING. No alternatives on FX, USA, TNT, HBO, or even Showtime.
Only TWO first-run scripted shows on offer there now. CSI:Miami is past its peak. Castle should have been able to threaten its dominance, the way Greys toppled the original CSI, if it was the great show its boosters keep saying it is. It will never be anything more than a distant second--and only as long as Leno is there.
And even with Leno in that timeslot, it's the oldest-skewing show at 10pm--by far. On a network that doesn't want to be old-skewing.
So whatever the short-term prognosis is, the overall prognosis remains terminal.
Top 10 Markets (with Detroit, Tampa-St. Petersburg, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Indianapolis & Ft. Myers-Naples) Preliminary Household Ratings-Primetime Monday, November 16
# 1 # 2 # 3 # 4 # 5
Time Net Program NY LA CHI PHI DAL
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8:00 ABC Dancing With The Stars 12.2/19 11.7/19 15.1/24 13.0/18 8.8/14
10:00 ABC Castle 7.7/13 5.9/11 9.1/15 7.9/12 6.1/10
8:00 CBS How I Met Your Mother 3.0/ 5 2.7/ 4 4.3/ 7 4.9/ 7 3.2/ 5
8:30 CBS Accidentally On Purpose 2.7/ 4 2.3/ 4 3.8/ 6 5.3/ 7 3.9/ 6
9:00 CBS Two and a Half Men 7.7/11 6.0/10 7.8/12 11.6/16 7.4/12
9:30 CBS Big Bang Theory 5.8/ 9 5.1/ 9 6.3/10 10.9/15 6.3/10
10:00 CBS CSI: Miami 7.4/12 5.8/11 8.3/13 10.7/17 6.5/10
8:00 NBC Heroes 2.9/ 4 2.7/ 4 1.8/ 3 2.4/ 3 1.9/ 3
9:00 NBC Trauma 2.9/ 4 2.6/ 4 2.4/ 4 2.5/ 3 1.7/ 3
10:00 NBC Jay Leno Show 3.1/ 5 3.6/ 7 2.2/ 3 3.2/ 5 3.6/ 6
8:00 FOX House 5.9/ 9 4.4/ 7 4.6/ 7 7.9/11 5.2/ 9
9:00 FOX Lie to Me 3.2/ 5 2.5/ 4 3.2/ 5 4.4/ 6 4.6/ 7
8:00 CW One Tree Hill 2.2/ 3 1.9/ 3 1.1/ 2 2.2/ 3 2.2/ 4
9:00 CW Gossip Girl 1.9/ 3 1.5/ 3 1.2/ 2 1.6/ 2 1.7/ 3
8:00 MNT Law & Order: Criminal Intent (R) 2.2/ 4 0.7/ 1 1.5/ 2 3.1/ 5 0.6/ 1
9:00 MNT Law & Order: Criminal Intent (R) 2.8/ 4 0.7/ 1 0.9/ 1 2.5/ 4 0.5/ 1
7:00 ION Ghost Whisperer (R) 0.9/ 2 0.3/ 1 0.4/ 1 0.2/ 0 0.9/ 2
8:00 ION Ghost Whisperer (R) 0.7/ 1 0.4/ 1 0.6/ 1 0.8/ 1 0.7/ 1
9:00 ION Criminal Minds (R) 1.3/ 2 0.3/ 1 0.6/ 1 1.0/ 1 1.0/ 2
10:00 ION Criminal Minds (R) 0.9/ 1 0.3/ 1 1.1/ 2 0.8/ 1 1.2/ 2
11:00 ION Durham County (R) 0.5/ 1 0.1/ 0 0.3/ 1 0.5/ 1 0.3/ 1
# 6 # 7 # 8 # 9 #10
Time Net Program SF/OAK/SJ BOS ATL WSH DC HOU
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8:00 ABC Dancing With The Stars 10.7/19 10.2/16 14.0/20 9.7/15 11.6/18
10:00 ABC Castle 6.6/14 5.4/10 7.9/12 6.6/11 7.4/12
8:00 CBS How I Met Your Mother 3.5/ 6 9.4/14 2.4/ 4 2.6/ 4 4.6/ 7
8:30 CBS Accidentally On Purpose 3.3/ 6 8.3/12 2.8/ 4 2.5/ 4 3.8/ 6
9:00 CBS Two and a Half Men 5.7/10 12.8/19 4.3/ 6 5.5/ 8 6.2/10
9:30 CBS Big Bang Theory 4.7/ 9 10.3/17 4.1/ 6 5.0/ 8 5.6/ 9
10:00 CBS CSI: Miami 5.3/11 9.0/17 8.4/13 7.4/12 7.9/13
8:00 NBC Heroes 2.9/ 5 2.0/ 3 2.1/ 3 3.3/ 5 2.5/ 4
9:00 NBC Trauma 2.9/ 5 3.1/ 5 2.2/ 3 3.4/ 5 2.5/ 4
10:00 NBC Jay Leno Show 2.2/ 5 3.9/ 7 2.9/ 4 2.8/ 5 2.6/ 4
8:00 FOX House 6.1/11 8.4/13 7.7/11 8.2/13 3.3/ 5
9:00 FOX Lie to Me 5.9/11 4.8/ 8 6.2/ 9 6.3/10 2.4/ 4
8:00 CW One Tree Hill 0.3/ 1 2.4/ 4 2.4/ 4 1.4/ 2 1.2/ 2
9:00 CW Gossip Girl 1.1/ 2 3.3/ 5 1.8/ 3 1.3/ 2 1.1/ 2
8:00 MNT Law & Order: Criminal Intent (R) 1.5/ 3 1.8/ 3 2.1/ 3 1.5/ 2
9:00 MNT Law & Order: Criminal Intent (R) 1.0/ 2 1.2/ 2 1.9/ 3 0.9/ 1
7:00 ION Ghost Whisperer (R) 0.7/ 1 0.3/ 1 0.7/ 1 0.4/ 1 0.4/ 1
8:00 ION Ghost Whisperer (R) 0.5/ 1 0.5/ 1 1.3/ 2 0.7/ 1 0.2/ 0
9:00 ION Criminal Minds (R) 0.4/ 1 0.7/ 1 1.4/ 2 0.5/ 1 0.7/ 1
10:00 ION Criminal Minds (R) 1.0/ 2 0.7/ 1 1.4/ 2 0.5/ 1 0.7/ 1
11:00 ION Durham County (R) 0.3/ 1 0.6/ 2 0.1/ 0 0.7/ 1
#11 #14 #15 #25 #64
Time Net Program DET TAM-StP MIN-StPl IND FtMy-Npl
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8:00 ABC Dancing With The Stars 15.4/23 9.5/14^^ 10.3/16 11.3/16 10.0/14
10:00 ABC Castle 9.8/16 3.9/ 7^^ 7.9/12 8.1/13 7.7/13
8:00 CBS How I Met Your Mother 3.1/ 5 2.7/ 4 5.9/10 4.2/ 6 4.4/ 6
8:30 CBS Accidentally On Purpose 2.8/ 4 4.1/ 6 6.1/10 4.8/ 7 3.9/ 5
9:00 CBS Two and a Half Men 7.1/10 8.1/12 14.5/22 9.8/14 8.3/12
9:30 CBS Big Bang Theory 5.1/ 8 6.6/10 12.8/19 10.1/14 8.2/12
10:00 CBS CSI: Miami 8.8/14 8.4/14 12.2/18 8.4/13 12.6/21
8:00 NBC Heroes 2.4/ 4 1.9/ 3 1.9/ 3 4.6/ 7 4.7/ 6
9:00 NBC Trauma 3.1/ 5 2.5/ 4 3.2/ 5 4.3/ 6 4.1/ 6
10:00 NBC Jay Leno Show 5.0/ 8 2.5/ 4 3.1/ 5 4.2/ 7 3.3/ 5
8:00 FOX House 8.2/13 9.0/14 7.9/13 9.7/14 7.9/11
9:00 FOX Lie to Me 6.9/10 5.6/ 8 4.6/ 7 5.4/ 8 5.4/ 8
8:00 CW One Tree Hill 2.1/ 3 1.4/ 2 1.7/ 3 2.5/ 4 1.9/ 3
9:00 CW Gossip Girl 1.4/ 2 0.7/ 1 0.6/ 1 1.7/ 2 1.0/ 1
8:00 MNT Law & Order: Criminal Intent (R) 1.5/ 2 0.2/ 0 1.5/ 2 1.2/ 2 0.1/ 0
9:00 MNT Law & Order: Criminal Intent (R) 1.9/ 3 0.9/ 1 2.3/ 3 2.0/ 3 0.3/ 0
7:00 ION Ghost Whisperer (R) 0.5/ 1 0.5/ 1 0.3/ 0 -.-/--
8:00 ION Ghost Whisperer (R) 0.6/ 1 0.6/ 1 0.8/ 1 -.-/--
9:00 ION Criminal Minds (R) 0.3/ 0 1.0/ 1 1.1/ 2 -.-/--
10:00 ION Criminal Minds (R) 0.6/ 1 1.4/ 2 0.6/ 1 0.1/ 0
11:00 ION Durham County (R) 0.5/ 1 0.5/ 1 0.5/ 1 0.2/ 0
^^ Combined rating of this market's two ABC affiliates
NFL Week 10
All Times Eastern
NFL Football (ESPN) simulcasts Baltimore Ravens 16, Cleveland Browns 0
Sounds like something went down on set.
NFL Football (ESPN) simulcasts