quote:

Originally posted by Douglas:

quote:

Originally posted by BlueLick:
If you were not a believer of the procedural vs procedural theory then you will be after you read this:

See how I did that?

See how I do this then...

Your theory is debunked when it comes to FOX's "Lie to Me" because wouldn't it logically do better at 8pm not facing CM than it did at 9pm facing CM? Perception-wise, LTM is better at Wed 8pm solely because it wins its timeslot but also there, it never reached its January and February ratings levels.

The one factor you are missing is QUALITY.
If a show is not that good, it will not be viewed by the masses.
I tried a couple of episodes of Lie To Me, and it didn't draw me in.

quote:

Originally posted by pisher:

quote:

Originally posted by Fifty:

quote:

Originally posted by BlueLick:

quote:

Originally posted by Douglas:
Access Hollywood's Billy Bush, just tweeted this: "Source at the top says Votes were NOT close on idol. IE kris blew out adam lambert"

And according to FOX 16, affiliate from Arkansas: "AT&T says about 38 million [out of the 100 million] American Idol votes came from Arkansas last night."

Lastly, I want to have an improptu market game here in this thread before I post them later: which of the markets were the highest-rated and lowest-rated for American Idol & Criminal Minds? From last night, I do have most of the data for the markets up until the #62 market, Fort Myers-Naples, FL.

I don't believe that BS from AT&T that 38 million votes came from Arkansas alone unless the same people were calling two or three times since Arkansas as a state only has 2,855,390 people as a population. How could 3 million people represent 38 million unless they called multiple times. Maybe that's what they meant.

Douglas, I played the daily game today and posted some needs on the local ratings end in your fan appreciation thread.

Every single person in Arkansas would need to vote 13 times in order to pull 38 million votes. Taking the educated guess that not everyone in Arkansas watches and votes in American Idol that number of votes per person would soar up and some people may have voted between 50-100 times (maybe more?), that's beyond an obsession that's crazy, it's a waste of money and time to cast so many votes for a reality show.

But THEY WON. I mean, the whole show is a waste of time, far as I'm concerned. But think of all the pointless powerless "Which low-rated show should get renewed?" online polls that get freeped by desperate fans of those shows--to absolutely no effect.

The fans of this guy, in Arkansas and elsewhere, made him the new American Idol. They got what they paid for.

How is it any more of a waste of time than getting cheat codes for a videogame so you can try for a high score?

These morons are deliriously happy now, and there's nothing any of us can do about it.

By waste of time and money I meant do they not have something better to be doing with their lives than calling voting lines? I agree the show is a waste of time and the fact that they made the guy win maybe they see that as worth it but unless this guy is goping to change the music industry then was he really worth the time and money? In 2 years time he will most likely have slipped back into obscurity like many reality winners do. So can anyone tell me what was so special about this guy other than he's from Arkansas?

Yes it is, but the network has not confirmed Big Brother's start date yet.

quote:

Originally posted by AL:

quote:

Originally posted by A.C.:
Well, with most of the FINALES and the UPFRONTS over or winding down I guess the board will start becoming a quiet place again but I know I can always count on a few of us Die Hards to be on hand to discuss BIG BROTHER and a few of the other upcoming summer series.

Is Big Brother returning? I have not seen any announcements regarding any summer programming for CBS...

quote:

Originally posted by BlueLick:

quote:

Originally posted by Douglas:

quote:

Originally posted by BlueLick:
If you were not a believer of the procedural vs procedural theory then you will be after you read this:

See how I did that?

See how I do this then...

Your theory is debunked when it comes to FOX's "Lie to Me" because wouldn't it logically do better at 8pm not facing CM than it did at 9pm facing CM? Perception-wise, LTM is better at Wed 8pm solely because it wins its timeslot but also there, it never reached its January and February ratings levels.

Debunked again Douglas,

Only if you have the benefit of picking out 20-25 million viewers to choose from Idol at 9:02pm.

If I come on at 7:59pm then I have to pick only the 5 million viewers watching Seinfeld in some markets and other programming on my FOX networks from around the country. Maybe if Criminal Minds wasn't on then I could get over 15 million viewers for sure. Damn I wish I had that 20-25 million from Idol then I could get 12-13 million viewers but by having to come on at 8pm I can only get 8-11 million viewers.

See how I did that again for you Douglas.

Let me straighten you out again...

I thought you had stated before that "big lead-ins rarely serve hits" (Source)? And Criminal Minds viewers watch LTM? Doubtful. And funny how you make that range of 8-11 million viewers... it never got over the 9 million mark after its first Wed 8pm showing. Could only draw about 7-8 million facing off against little else.

But your theory had it that it would maintain its Wed 9pm numbers but at 8pm, which it didn't. And your explanation of the 15-million projection is just spin.

quote:

Originally posted by Fifty:

quote:

Originally posted by pisher:

quote:

Originally posted by Fifty:

quote:

Originally posted by BlueLick:

quote:

Originally posted by Douglas:
Access Hollywood's Billy Bush, just tweeted this: "Source at the top says Votes were NOT close on idol. IE kris blew out adam lambert"

And according to FOX 16, affiliate from Arkansas: "AT&T says about 38 million [out of the 100 million] American Idol votes came from Arkansas last night."

Lastly, I want to have an improptu market game here in this thread before I post them later: which of the markets were the highest-rated and lowest-rated for American Idol & Criminal Minds? From last night, I do have most of the data for the markets up until the #62 market, Fort Myers-Naples, FL.

I don't believe that BS from AT&T that 38 million votes came from Arkansas alone unless the same people were calling two or three times since Arkansas as a state only has 2,855,390 people as a population. How could 3 million people represent 38 million unless they called multiple times. Maybe that's what they meant.

Douglas, I played the daily game today and posted some needs on the local ratings end in your fan appreciation thread.

Every single person in Arkansas would need to vote 13 times in order to pull 38 million votes. Taking the educated guess that not everyone in Arkansas watches and votes in American Idol that number of votes per person would soar up and some people may have voted between 50-100 times (maybe more?), that's beyond an obsession that's crazy, it's a waste of money and time to cast so many votes for a reality show.

But THEY WON. I mean, the whole show is a waste of time, far as I'm concerned. But think of all the pointless powerless "Which low-rated show should get renewed?" online polls that get freeped by desperate fans of those shows--to absolutely no effect.

The fans of this guy, in Arkansas and elsewhere, made him the new American Idol. They got what they paid for.

How is it any more of a waste of time than getting cheat codes for a videogame so you can try for a high score?

These morons are deliriously happy now, and there's nothing any of us can do about it.

By waste of time and money I meant do they not have something better to be doing with their lives than calling voting lines? I agree the show is a waste of time and the fact that they made the guy win maybe they see that as worth it but unless this guy is goping to change the music industry then was he really worth the time and money? In 2 years time he will most likely have slipped back into obscurity like many reality winners do. So can anyone tell me what was so special about this guy other than he's from Arkansas?

That's pretty scary that people can be that obsessive over a silly competition where the competitors only real judgment is by their album sales after the competition ends.

Had Adam won then there would've been a few suicide attempts. Crazy right?

Douglas, I'm going to go with Indy being the high for both shows and LA being the lowest.

quote:

By waste of time and money I meant do they not have something better to be doing with their lives than calling voting lines?

Yes. But they're only doing that because they're watching American Idol. Shouldn't you be starting there?

quote:

I agree the show is a waste of time and the fact that they made the guy win maybe they see that as worth it but unless this guy is goping to change the music industry then was he really worth the time and money?

I dunno. How much money would it cost somebody to vote for this guy, oh let's say 100 times? And anyway, if these are tweeners, aren't their parents paying?

quote:

In 2 years time he will most likely have slipped back into obscurity like many reality winners do.

But again, if this is just a game they wanted to win, why is it more of a waste of time than trying to get a high score on a videogame?

quote:

So can anyone tell me what was so special about this guy other than he's from Arkansas?

Hey, that's what I keep saying about Mike Huckabee.

quote:

Originally posted by TV-aholic:
The one factor you are missing is QUALITY.
If a show is not that good, it will not be viewed by the masses.
I tried a couple of episodes of Lie To Me, and it didn't draw me in.

Quality is subjective. In terms of ratings, it maintained at the 11-12 million viewer level for most of its post-Idol run, which in hindsight, with viewer numbers from Fringe & Glee since, is pretty good.

quote:

Originally posted by Walter:
Hahah American Idol did not even get 30 million viewers for the finale. When was the last time that happend. I love it.

With DVR usage creeping up every year and the continued fragmentation of the TV audience, I doubt that any show will exceed 30 million live viewers again (excluding sports and special events).

Besides evens like the Superbowl and the Olympics, it won't. People are too used to getting their TV shows by other mediums.

quote:

Originally posted by Ammit:
I doubt that any show will exceed 30 million live viewers again (excluding sports and special events).

quote:

Originally posted by Ammit:
Douglas, I'm going to go with Indy being the high for both shows and LA being the lowest.

Yes, the first guess! Any more guesses for AI & CM high and low markets?

quote:

Originally posted by Douglas:

quote:

Originally posted by BlueLick:

quote:

Originally posted by Douglas:

quote:

Originally posted by BlueLick:
If you were not a believer of the procedural vs procedural theory then you will be after you read this:

See how I did that?

See how I do this then...

Your theory is debunked when it comes to FOX's "Lie to Me" because wouldn't it logically do better at 8pm not facing CM than it did at 9pm facing CM? Perception-wise, LTM is better at Wed 8pm solely because it wins its timeslot but also there, it never reached its January and February ratings levels.

Debunked again Douglas,

Only if you have the benefit of picking out 20-25 million viewers to choose from Idol at 9:02pm.

If I come on at 7:59pm then I have to pick only the 5 million viewers watching Seinfeld in some markets and other programming on my FOX networks from around the country. Maybe if Criminal Minds wasn't on then I could get over 15 million viewers for sure. Damn I wish I had that 20-25 million from Idol then I could get 12-13 million viewers but by having to come on at 8pm I can only get 8-11 million viewers.

See how I did that again for you Douglas.

Let me straighten you out again...

I thought you had stated before that "big lead-ins rarely serve hits" (Source)? And Criminal Minds viewers watch LTM? Doubtful. And funny how you make that range of 8-11 million viewers... it never got over the 9 million mark after its first Wed 8pm showing. Could only draw about 7-8 million facing off against little else.

But your theory had it that it would maintain its Wed 9pm numbers but at 8pm, which it didn't. And your explanation of the 15-million projection is just spin.

Douglas please throw in the towel now,

I do hold true to that thought as the perfect example was Glee behind Idol this week but in this case Lie to Me is not a hit in the first place. Lie to Me is just a solid ratings player which is almost as good as being a hit. Some people will spin it as a small hit and I have no problem with that.

Douglas please reread my theory where I taught you about how casual viewers work. You seem to be talking about the CM core fans who probably won't watch LTM but how will you know unless you ask them? CM has casual viewers and lots of them. Some of those casual viewers wanting to watch a procedural at 8pm will choose to watch Lie to Me. Same thing at 9pm where they get to choose rather to watch CBS or FOX. These are not viewers who will watch CM or LTM every week but if they like it then they will and they will become core viewers.

I only said 8-11 million viewers b/c it got 11 million viewers on its first airing and like TV-aholic said you're forgetting QUALITY. Maybe those casual viewers didn't like it and decided not to comeback but LTM doesn't get 7-8 million viewers if a CBS procedural is on at 8pm. Quality depends on the individual watching not what the majority thinks. If it wasn't for the individual then there is no majority. There's plenty of crossover there.

One more time, LTM had the leftover casual viewers from Idol to get those 12-13 million viewers so you can't compare it to its 8pm viewers b/c its building a new audience in that slot behind a weaker lead-in which they call anchors. Anchors are the shows who lead-off the night and sometimes set the tone for the rest of the shows airing that evening. LTM is an anchor at 8pm and a lead-out at 9pm. The numbers will be different no doubt.

15 million was if CBS didn't air a procedural there but that never happened so we never found out. Not a valid point there.

quote:

Originally posted by BlueLick:
Douglas please reread my theory where I taught you about how casual viewers work.

No, I won't!

quote:

You seem to be talking abut the core fans who probably won't watch CM but how will you know unless you ask them?

I have.

quote:

CM has casual viewers and lots of them.

How do YOU know?

quote:

Some of those casual viewers wanting to watch a procedural at 8pm will choose to watch Lie to Me.

Not necessarily. Maybe they're into watching World's Funniest Moments on MNT!

quote:

Same thing at 9pm where they get to choose rather to watch CBS or FOX. These are not viewers who will watch CM or LTM every week but if they like it then they will and they will become core viewers.

Oh, good to know!

quote:

I only said 8-11 million viewers b/c it got 11 million viewers on its first airing and like TV-aholic said you're forgetting QUALITY.

Like I wrote before, quality is subjective. Ratings were steady until the 2nd Wed 8pm episode.

quote:

Maybe those casual viewers didn't like it and decided not to comeback but LTM doesn't get 7-8 million viewers if a CBS procedural is on at 8pm. There's plenty of crossover there.

I wouldn't assume that's the case for all CBS crime dramas.

quote:

One more time, LTM had the leftover casual viewers from Idol to get those 12-13 million viewers so you can't compare it to its 8pm viewers...

Sure you can. Take a look at what Bones did back in the spring of 2006. Now that was a show that maintained its post-Idol ratings but at 8pm.

quote:

...b/c its building a new audience in that slot behind a weaker lead-in which they call anchors.

Really? I thought that's what was used on only boats to stop at a destination.

quote:

Anchors are the shows who lead-off the night and sometimes set the tone for the rest of the shows airing that evening.

Wow, I'm learning so much from the only guy to root for his declining Blue Jays team!

quote:

LTM is an anchor at 8pm and a lead-out at 9pm. The numbers will be different no doubt.

Thank you for saying I'm right.

quote:

15 million was if CBS didn't air a procedural there but that never happened so we never found out. Not a valid point there.

So why'd you bring it up?

Feel free to join me in TV Talk.

quote:

Originally posted by horse_horror:
Douglas that's how the theory works and its a fact because those casual viewers are the ones who decide what show rates higher than the next one. If we do it by your theory Douglas then SVU would be beating Trace in viewers every week but it hasn't been and its only doing it in the demo because CBS has an older audience.

Ok, BlueLick! (we know it's really you!)

I never said SVU would beat WaT. My point was there weren't any big losses for SVU, facing WaT. CBS isn't the behemoth you think it is. It has been relatively steady vs. WaT this season. Plus, SVU was the main stalwart Tuesdays at 10, which may have contributed to their steadiness.

And considering their eventual fates, I believe SVU won that time slot battle!

FOX Wins May Sweep in A18-49s, CBS Inches Past ABC for Second; CBS Handily Wins Households and P2+ Viewership Crown
BASED ON PRELIMINARY NUMBERS - UPDATED TABLES WILL BE PUBLISHED WHEN FINALS ARE RELEASED


FOX First in A18-49 for Fifth Consecutive Sweep

After four full weeks of the 2009 May Sweep, FOX has won its fifth consecutive A18-49 first place title with an A18-49 average of 3.34 (3.3 rounded). CBS used a double-up of 'Criminal Minds' to sneak past ABC for second place with a 2.69 (2.7 rounded). ABC finished in third place with a 2.67 average (2.7 rounded). NBC finished fourth in A18-49s with a 1.94 average (1.9 rounded), Univision ended up fifth at 1.44 (1.4 rounded), The CW sixth at 0.83 (0.8 rounded), and MyNetworkTV seventh at 0.49 (0.5 rounded).


CBS Wins Seventh Consecutive Sweep in Households & P2+ Viewers

In households, CBS finished tops in households with a 6.8HH average, ABC ended the Sweep in second, FOX third, NBC fourth, Univision fifth, The CW sixth and MyNetworkTV finished last. In average viewership, CBS finished the Sweep as America's most viewed network with a 10,844,000 P2+ viewer average, while FOX came in second. ABC ended up in third place, NBC fourth, Univision fifth, The CW sixth and MyNetworkTV in seventh.

Half of the broadcast networks showed year-over-year growth in any or all of the key A18-49 demo, households or P2+ viewers as follows:

• MyNetworkTV, who finished up +8% in demo, up +16% in HH and up +23% in P2+;
  
• Univision, who finished up +1 in HH;
  
• NBC, who finished up +4% in demo, up +3% in HH and up +4% in viewers;
  
• CBS, who finished even in demo, up +2% in HH, and up +4% in viewers.

Several networks reached all-time lows in this May Sweep. The only network to achieve all-time highs was MyNetworkTV in A18-49, HH and P2+ viewers.

Overall for the seven networks, after twelve nights the A18-49 demo is down -6% from last year, households are -4% to last May, and P2+ viewers are down -3% year-over-year.

					nights	nights	
demo	demo	demo	demo	%	won	won	Alltime
Rank	web	2009	2008	chg	2009	2008	Record
1	FOX	3.34	3.73	-10%	13	15.5	
2	CBS	2.69	2.70	0%	5	4.5	Low
3	ABC	2.67	2.99	-11%	9.5	8	Low
4	NBC	1.94	1.86	4%	0.5		
5	UNI	1.44	1.58	-9%			
6	CW	0.83	1.04	-20%			Low
7	MNT	0.49	0.46	8%			High
	total	13.41	14.34	-6%	28	28	

					nights	nights	
HH	HH	HH	HH	HH	won	won	Alltime
rank	web	2009	2008	chg	2009	2008	Record
1	CBS	6.8	6.7	2%	13.5	10	
2	ABC	5.6	6.2	-9%	7	7	
3	FOX	5.5	6.0	-9%	7.5	11	
4	NBC	4.0	3.9	3%			
5	UNI	1.9	1.9	1%			
6	CW	1.3	1.6	-22%			Low
7	MNT	0.9	0.8	16%			High
	total	26.0	27.1	-4%	28	28	

					nights	nights	
viewers	viewers	viewers	viewers	viewers	won	won	Alltime
rank	web	2009	2008	chg	2009	2008	Record
1	CBS	10.844	10.396	4%	14	10	
2	FOX	9.270	10.010	-7%	9	12	
3	ABC	8.766	9.445	-7%	5	6	
4	NBC	6.084	5.843	4%			
5	UNI	3.644	3.709	-2%			
6	CW	1.936	2.534	-24%			Low
7	MNT	1.465	1.194	23%			High
	total	42.009	43.132	-3%	28	28	
 

The data for this and last year are all final Nielsen numbers, except for all networks for last night, and also excepting the MyNetworkTV P2+ numbers for Saturday May 2, and for all Univision numbers this year from May 11th onwards, exceptions all of which are preliminary data. All Sweep calculations incorporate Nielsen final numbers for primetime programming, Monday to Saturday 8-11 pm, and Sunday 7-11 pm. For daytime over-runs into primetime and primetime run-pasts into latenight (e.g. sports coverage, award shows), only the primetime portion of the program numbers have been factored in. For networks that split programs into multiple segments of sustaining and non-sustaining coverage, the rating for the sustaining portion applies to the entire program broadcast. Sustaining network coverage of news broadcasts (i.e. President Obama speeches and news conferences) have excluded from network averages.