I can't get over how well NCIS is doing this season. What is the cause of this sudden ratings bump in its 7th season?! Do you think it has something to do with the reality/talk show overload on this night, making it one of the few scripted choices?
I think there are several factors in addition to the scheduling you noted.
I think it would be a very popular show in any timeslot. But even so--
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1. Mark Harmon. One of the most appealing actors on TV.
Who has been in a host of flops. The most successful show he'd had a regular starring role on prior to NCIS was Chicago Hope. He's good at what he does, but his presence on a show doesn't guarantee much of anything in itself.
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2. Team chemistry. It's a happy accident that this group of actors just work extremely well together.
Um--I agree about the group chemistry, and there is always an unpredictable serendipitous element when it comes to casting, but I do think whoever actually chose these actors deserves some credit. I mean, Pauley Perrette as a goth lab techie? Only thing I'd seen her in before NCIS was something called "The Price of Kissing." It was just as good as it sounds.
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2a. It's a really good-looking cast.
Oh yeah, that's hard to find on network primetime.
Actually, they do a good job balancing very attractive people with more 'normal' looking people, and that's crucial--makes it more accessible. And nobody acts like their looks make them special. Which they don't.
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3. It's a procedural where everyone does the proper job. In other words, the forensic scientists aren't questioning suspects; the field agents do that.
I think you're onto something, but haven't quite hit it--people like seeing people be good at their jobs on television. Even if the jobs they're doing aren't actually done that way (and NCIS bears little resemblance to actual police work, like every other procedural on TV). For the illusion to work, you have to make people believe a given character could know all the things he or she is supposed to know. This means specialization. You can't just do what Castle does, and have the protagonist know whatever it's convenient for him to know for the sake of the story. That's lazy writing, and people don't appreciate it.
Everybody on NCIS is good at something, but their varying expertises overlap enough to make it possible for them to talk to each other. It's not like Law & Order, where investigators and lawyers basically live in separate worlds that occasionally meet. It's a neat format. It's not reality at all. But it's what people wish police work was like. Or what their own jobs were like.
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4. Family-friendly. I see comments on the boards about NCIS being a show parents feel comfortable watching with their (older) children.
I'm so relieved to see that 'older' part. I sure hope 'older' doesn't just mean 'toilet-trained'.
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5. The constant reruns. I can't count how many people have said they discounted the show until they actually caught old episodes in reruns. I guess NCIS is a show that's more than the sum of its parts.
This is circular reasoning--NCIS has a lot of reruns because it's successful. It isn't successful because it has a lot of reruns. And I don't think it's the type of show that requires people to know anything coming in. The syndication has helped to promote the show, but I think it's a minor factor in its ratings increase. It basically comes down to the producers recognizing what works about the show, and making sure they don't ruin it.
It's not a very ambitious program at all--it doesn't take risks. It has basically nothing to say. They've made very few cast changes, and they've avoided the kind of behind the scenes problems with the CSI cast. People don't like changes in their TV families. They want familiar reassuring faces. True, they killed Kate off, but they had an even better replacement lined up. They can't lose Gibbs, obviously--or Abby--or McGee--or Ducky--not sure about DiNozzo. Nah, they need somebody for Gibbs to whack upside the head.
Mind you, the show is peaking now. And that's a dangerous time for a hit like this. Actors can start feeling underappreciated. Writers can start feeling like they can reinvent the wheel. And spinoffs can be a distraction.
No matter how popular a show is, there is going to be a point where people start deciding they've had enough. Still, a great achievement by all concerned. Which will be utterly forgotten a few decades from now.
I can see that. What I can't see is how it is so strong with the name. Naval Criminal? Do they expand off of the Naval theme? Seems like there wouldn't be that many exciting opportunities or storylines just sticking with the Naval entity - but I guess I'm wrong and 20 million are right. Didn't JAG go on for years? Big Grin
NCIS (the real one and the TV one) are civilian agencies tasked with investigating crimes having to do with the Navy and the Marines (and their dependents), which includes investigating any terrorists attempting to infiltrate the US through either of those branches of service, as well as smaller-scale stuff like drug dealing, fencing antiquities stolen by servicemen, embezzlement, crimes against service members' families, etc. There's a bit of repetition in the kinds of cases the show covers, but the writers usually manage to find a way to tie the cases to the military without it seeming like a community-theatre production of <i>A Few Good Men</i>.
Translation: The real NCIS is a federal agency, which is depicted on television as doing a far more efficient job than local law enforcement agencies, which are invariably depicted as blundering and apparently not even aware that NCIS exists most of the time (because there is no hit TV show called NCIS in that fictional universe).
It's kind of a piquant irony for me that probably a lot of fairly conservative people watch NCIS, not grasping the fact that it neatly contradicts the fundamental principle of modern conservatism, by showing a centralized federal government agency, run by bureaucrats, doing a better job than either local government or private enterprise.
It's the public option of law enforcement. Only it's not actually optional for those under its jurisdiction. So really it's single-payer law enforcement. COMMUNISM!!!!
Also keep in mind that NCIS has been slowly building for years. Other than me, no one has ever really written about it.
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Originally posted by Chicklet:
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I can't get over how well NCIS is doing this season. What is the cause of this sudden ratings bump in its 7th season?! Do you think it has something to do with the reality/talk show overload on this night, making it one of the few scripted choices?
I think there are several factors in addition to the scheduling you noted.
1. Mark Harmon. One of the most appealing actors on TV.
2. Team chemistry. It's a happy accident that this group of actors just work extremely well together.
2a. It's a really good-looking cast.
3. It's a procedural where everyone does the proper job. In other words, the forensic scientists aren't questioning suspects; the field agents do that.
4. Family-friendly. I see comments on the boards about NCIS being a show parents feel comfortable watching with their (older) children.
5. The constant reruns. I can't count how many people have said they discounted the show until they actually caught old episodes in reruns. I guess NCIS is a show that's more than the sum of its parts.
Do you think it is skewing older this year because of the celebs on or the competition it is up against? How can they pull the younger crowd back in? I wonder if they lost some of the younger folks with the departure of Julianne Hough
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Originally posted by WlcmZapataTexas: I agree. DWTS is here for a while. However, they have to find some way to make it younger skewing. Especially since it takes so much of their schedule.
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Originally posted by Marc Berman: I would not be concerned about Dancing With the STars...yet. And go Kelly Osbourne!
Also keep in mind that NCIS has been slowly building for years. Other than me, no one has ever really written about it.
I think that's precisely it. It's not losing many old viewers, and gradually finds new ones. It's a slow-building hit. But I doubt it'll get as big as CSI was at its peak--not about which show is better (I prefer NCIS, though not much of a procedural fan), but I think the criminal forensics trend, while still robust, is past its prime. Like the TV western after Gunsmoke, it's seen so many variants that the audience is divided.
These really impressive numbers for NCIS and NCIS:LA spell trouble for American Idol when it returns. Not unless 'Idol' somehow rebounds, exprect losses in the vicinity of 2-3Million viewers and NCIS could even tally in more total viewers than 'Idol'.
I think Idol will stll win in total viewers, but the gap will certainly be narrowed.
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Originally posted by Trapnamara: These really impressive numbers for NCIS and NCIS:LA spell trouble for American Idol when it returns. Not unless 'Idol' somehow rebounds, exprect losses in the vicinity of 2-3Million viewers and NCIS could even tally in more total viewers than 'Idol'.
In my opinion, the celebrities chosen could have something to do with the old skewing ratings. They could definately try to bring younger viewers with their celebrity choices next year. But I think that the dances displayed are really old skewing also. Does an 18 to 49 year old really care about a waltz? I'm not so sure. Since they are going for proper ballroom dancing, a lot of the urban and street dances that would appeal to a younger crowd isn't shown. They may have to expand their dance routines next year and make a few changes.
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Originally posted by vlis: Do you think it is skewing older this year because of the celebs on or the competition it is up against? How can they pull the younger crowd back in? I wonder if they lost some of the younger folks with the departure of Julianne Hough
NCIS: Los Angeles - 17.399 million viewers - 10.6/16 HH - 4.1/11 A18-49 *for those who watch... why aren't so many NCIS viewers sticking around for the spin-off? Is it a DWTS effect?*
The Good Wife - 13.690 million viewers - 9.1/16 HH - 3.2/9 A18-49
The Biggest Loser (121 minutes) - 9.177 million viewers - 5.7/9 HH - 3.7/10 A18-49
The Jay Leno Show (59 minutes) - 6.580 million viewers - 4.4/8 HH - 2.2/6 A18-49
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NCIS: Los Angeles - 17.399 million viewers - 10.6/16 HH - 4.1/11 A18-49 *for those who watch... why aren't so many NCIS viewers sticking around for the spin-off? Is it a DWTS effect?*
I would think those are good numbers and demo for NCIS: Los Angeles, aren't they?
NCIS: Los Angeles - 17.399 million viewers - 10.6/16 HH - 4.1/11 A18-49 *for those who watch... why aren't so many NCIS viewers sticking around for the spin-off? Is it a DWTS effect?*
The Good Wife - 13.690 million viewers - 9.1/16 HH - 3.2/9 A18-49
NCIS: Los Angeles - 17.399 million viewers - 10.6/16 HH - 4.1/11 A18-49 *for those who watch... why aren't so many NCIS viewers sticking around for the spin-off? Is it a DWTS effect?*
I would think those are good numbers and demo for NCIS: Los Angeles, aren't they?
Certainly, they are. And there's more competition at 9pm than 8pm (especially for 50+ers because of DWTS, and The Biggest Loser's second hour is always much stronger than its first). But The Mentalist had relatively the same competition last season as NCIS: Los Angeles is facing now... and had better (near-perfect) retention. So, I pose the question.
