Originally posted by mushu_jj: The strike is in no way going to help any shows. I don't think everything will necessarily lose viewers and the heavy hitters may be okay. Its the Brothers and Sister, the Sharks, the CSI:NYs, and the Ugly Bettys that I'm worried about losing viewers.
I think the show to watch will be CSI:Miami. It dipped a little too low here the last month. I think it may be the one CBS show hurt most by the strike.
CSI:NY as well. That show now has stronger competition in Law and Order. It should be a close battle between those 2 shows when they both are original. I also think Numbers will be weaker.
Numb3rs is in need of a new lead in more than anything. Its lead in dropped by 3 million on average this year and the demo dipped by about 0.5. Never good news. Lets hope they give it a special Friday 9pm CSI for a lead in that first week before Moonlight returns and not just a Moonlight repeat. I agree NY and Miami are in trouble but its not like Miami has much in terms of competition (or NY for that matter).
Despite year-year declines NUMBERS is fairly consistent within any one year.
I say MIAMI returns relatively strong.
L&O has not capitalized on NY's absence but NY tends to run hot and cold.
Posts: 1589 | Location: Western Pennsylvania | Registered: 13 December 2006
Originally posted by mushu_jj: The strike is in no way going to help any shows. I don't think everything will necessarily lose viewers and the heavy hitters may be okay. Its the Brothers and Sister, the Sharks, the CSI:NYs, and the Ugly Bettys that I'm worried about losing viewers.
I think the show to watch will be CSI:Miami. It dipped a little too low here the last month. I think it may be the one CBS show hurt most by the strike.
CSI:NY as well. That show now has stronger competition in Law and Order. It should be a close battle between those 2 shows when they both are original. I also think Numbers will be weaker.
CSI:NY should be fine. It will go back to its 13-14 million viewers.
It will only if Criminal Minds goes that high and even then I'm not sure it will. 12 million wouldn't be the end of the world but this show has never developed into the hit the other 2 CSIs did.
FOX Soars Higher Above Other Networks After 20 Days of the 2008 February Sweep:
After 20 days of the February Sweep, FOX remains rooted in first place in all key measures. The mammoth FOX lead over its rivals has been fueled by the enormous, record-breaking Super Bowl numbers, the powerhouse American Idol numbers on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, and reliable ratings strength on every other night.
In the young audience A18-49 demo that advertisers crave and seek to place their ads within, FOX has the most nightly wins, having beaten the other networks on 12 out of 20 nights so far (one tie), followed by NBC with five nightly wins (one NBC win was a tie with FOX).
After 20 days, NBC has moved into second place in the A18-49 demo with a .16 advantage over third place ABC. In the households and viewership measures, CBS has a firm grip on second place in households, while NBC is in third.
After 20 days, the two News Corporation networks FOX and MyNetworkTV are both showing solid double-digit improvement over their numbers from last year. All the remaining networks are showing significant double-digit year-over-year declines, with NBC showing the least year-over-year slippage (-11% in demo, -11% in households, and -9% in viewers) while CBS, who were last year's Super Bowl broadcaster, is faring worst (-59% in demo, -47% in households, -52% in viewers) due to its large proportion of encore programming as a result of the writers strike.
After 20 days, the six networks are showing smaller-than-expected (given the strike and increased use of DVR's) year-over-year erosion: the young adult demo down by -12%, households are down by -12% on a year-over-year basis, while viewership is down by -9% year-over-year.
nights nights
demo web demo demo % won won
Rank web 2008 2007 chg 2008 2007
1 FOX 7.24 4.59 58% 12 9
2 NBC 2.59 2.90 -11% 5
3 ABC 2.43 3.45 -30% 3 4
4 CBS 2.27 5.52 -59% 1 7
5 CW 0.86 1.32 -35%
6 MNT* 0.47 0.27 75%
total 15.86 18.04 -12% 21 20
nights nights
HH web HH HH HH won won
rank web 2008 2007 chg 2008 2007
1 FOX 9.9 6.6 50% 10 6
2 CBS 5.3 10.0 -47% 4 12
3 NBC 4.9 5.5 -11% 5 1
4 ABC 4.6 5.9 -21% 3 2
5 CW 1.5 2.1 -30%
6 MNT* 0.8 0.5 50%
total 27.1 30.7 -12% 22 21
nights nights
viewers web viewers viewers viewers won won
rank web 2008 2007 chg 2008 2007
1 FOX 18.746 11.230 67% 10 6
2 CBS 8.198 17.069 -52% 3 12
3 NBC 7.784 8.546 -9% 4
4 ABC 7.313 9.201 -21% 3 2
5 CW 2.278 3.304 -31%
6 MNT* 1.179 0.780 51%
total 45.50 50.13 -9% 20 20
* MyNetworkTV for first 19 nights only.
This years and last years numbers are based upon final Nielsen numbers, except for last nights data which is based on FAST national numbers.
CBS Shows that I think will get hurt by the strike (Sun, Tue, Wed, Fri lineup): CC Num3ers (I am a fan!, and I have free on demand for that.) CM The Unit (If they make more episodes) Shark Moonlight CSI: NY
Posts: 478 | Location: SF Bay Area | Registered: 08 December 2006
I have never been a big fan of CBS shows, so maybe this comment might be a bit bias, but I really think CBS is at the start of trouble for them. I think people are growing tired of all their crime dramas, and all of the repeats during the strike has just added to that. I could see CSI (original) and WAT doing well on Thursdays, but I really see a big downturn for all the rest of their shows.
I've been saying that all along. Eventually people will grow quite tired, just like ABC has realized that oversaturated lineups of female relationships are not going to cut it. I don't see anything on the likes of Big Shots or Cashmere Mafia getting picked up next year unless they go forward with Cupid or whatever the hell that Rob Thomas disaster was called.
I cooled to the CBS shows but I think they will continue to develop the genre.
ABC appears to try to "sprinkle" all of its shows with the same tone.
I think the answer for both is branching out with some new producers.
Posts: 1589 | Location: Western Pennsylvania | Registered: 13 December 2006
Originally posted by dumont: FOX Soars Higher Above Other Networks After 20 Days of the 2008 February Sweep:
After 20 days of the February Sweep, FOX remains rooted in first place in all key measures. The mammoth FOX lead over its rivals has been fueled by the enormous, record-breaking Super Bowl numbers, the powerhouse American Idol numbers on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, and reliable ratings strength on every other night.
In the young audience A18-49 demo that advertisers crave and seek to place their ads within, FOX has the most nightly wins, having beaten the other networks on 12 out of 20 nights so far (one tie), followed by NBC with five nightly wins (one NBC win was a tie with FOX).
After 20 days, NBC has moved into second place in the A18-49 demo with a .16 advantage over third place ABC. In the households and viewership measures, CBS has a firm grip on second place in households, while NBC is in third.
After 20 days, the two News Corporation networks FOX and MyNetworkTV are both showing solid double-digit improvement over their numbers from last year. All the remaining networks are showing significant double-digit year-over-year declines, with NBC showing the least year-over-year slippage (-11% in demo, -11% in households, and -9% in viewers) while CBS, who were last year's Super Bowl broadcaster, is faring worst (-59% in demo, -47% in households, -52% in viewers) due to its large proportion of encore programming as a result of the writers strike.
After 20 days, the six networks are showing smaller-than-expected (given the strike and increased use of DVR's) year-over-year erosion: the young adult demo down by -12%, households are down by -12% on a year-over-year basis, while viewership is down by -9% year-over-year.
nights nights
demo web demo demo % won won
Rank web 2008 2007 chg 2008 2007
1 FOX 7.24 4.59 58% 12 9
2 NBC 2.59 2.90 -11% 5
3 ABC 2.43 3.45 -30% 3 4
4 CBS 2.27 5.52 -59% 1 7
5 CW 0.86 1.32 -35%
6 MNT* 0.47 0.27 75%
total 15.86 18.04 -12% 21 20
nights nights
HH web HH HH HH won won
rank web 2008 2007 chg 2008 2007
1 FOX 9.9 6.6 50% 10 6
2 CBS 5.3 10.0 -47% 4 12
3 NBC 4.9 5.5 -11% 5 1
4 ABC 4.6 5.9 -21% 3 2
5 CW 1.5 2.1 -30%
6 MNT* 0.8 0.5 50%
total 27.1 30.7 -12% 22 21
nights nights
viewers web viewers viewers viewers won won
rank web 2008 2007 chg 2008 2007
1 FOX 18.746 11.230 67% 10 6
2 CBS 8.198 17.069 -52% 3 12
3 NBC 7.784 8.546 -9% 4
4 ABC 7.313 9.201 -21% 3 2
5 CW 2.278 3.304 -31%
6 MNT* 1.179 0.780 51%
total 45.50 50.13 -9% 20 20
* MyNetworkTV for first 19 nights only.
This years and last years numbers are based upon final Nielsen numbers, except for last nights data which is based on FAST national numbers.
Dumont, thanks for posting these numbers every day. If this will add too much to the work you do for this, please ignore, but is there any chance you could put in parenthesis by the FOX and CBS numbers what the numbers would be if you did not use the Super Bowls in your calculations? This way we could see the numbers comparing apples to apples. The networks obviously deserve full credit for the Super Bowl rating, as they pay a ton of money for those rights. But when comparing the ratings from year to year they are very skewed because of the big game. Thanks, and again please ignore if this will take too much time for you.
Originally posted by nyctvdramaqueen: So, Boston Legal returns in April with 5 new episodes, and it will air following Dancing, right?
Does anyone think the current slide to 7 or so million viewers and a terrible 1.9 in the demo will go up? I doubt, even with Dancing, that BL can ever go back up to 10 million or a 2.5 demo that they had before. So, hmmm..what can we expect?
I actually think it will go right back up to that range -- 10 million viewers, give or take a few hundred thousand, and 2.5 in the demo, give or take 0.2 each week.
I don't agree. I think a lot of shows are never going to return to their pre strike levels.
I agree that a lot of shows will underperform this spring. Remember what DLST did last year.
DLST???
Yes, I meant daylight savings time (DST). Sorry, I shouldn't post as I am heading out the door.
Dumont, thanks for posting these numbers every day. If this will add too much to the work you do for this, please ignore, but is there any chance you could put in parenthesis by the FOX and CBS numbers what the numbers would be if you did not use the Super Bowls in your calculations? This way we could see the numbers comparing apples to apples. The networks obviously deserve full credit for the Super Bowl rating, as they pay a ton of money for those rights. But when comparing the ratings from year to year they are very skewed because of the big game. Thanks, and again please ignore if this will take too much time for you.
Thanks for your feedback AL.
I did a special run the other day that normalized the FOX and CBS numbers, but it was a bit of work. But it had some good insights, so I will do the special calculation again for the end of week 3 (tomorrow) and the end of the Sweep (after all the final numbers are in).
Dumont, thanks for posting these numbers every day. If this will add too much to the work you do for this, please ignore, but is there any chance you could put in parenthesis by the FOX and CBS numbers what the numbers would be if you did not use the Super Bowls in your calculations? This way we could see the numbers comparing apples to apples. The networks obviously deserve full credit for the Super Bowl rating, as they pay a ton of money for those rights. But when comparing the ratings from year to year they are very skewed because of the big game. Thanks, and again please ignore if this will take too much time for you.
Thanks for your feedback AL.
I did a special run the other day that normalized the FOX and CBS numbers, but it was a bit of work. But it had some good insights, so I will do the special calculation again for the end of week 3 (tomorrow) and the end of the Sweep (after all the final numbers are in).
Dumont, thanks for posting these numbers every day. If this will add too much to the work you do for this, please ignore, but is there any chance you could put in parenthesis by the FOX and CBS numbers what the numbers would be if you did not use the Super Bowls in your calculations? This way we could see the numbers comparing apples to apples. The networks obviously deserve full credit for the Super Bowl rating, as they pay a ton of money for those rights. But when comparing the ratings from year to year they are very skewed because of the big game. Thanks, and again please ignore if this will take too much time for you.
Thanks for your feedback AL.
I did a special run the other day that normalized the FOX and CBS numbers, but it was a bit of work. But it had some good insights, so I will do the special calculation again for the end of week 3 (tomorrow) and the end of the Sweep (after all the final numbers are in).
Dumont I've also enjoyed watching your daily trackings. I have a feeling ABC will return to second by the end of sweeps, if only thanks to the Oscars and the anticipated upcoming made for TV movie, which should do no worse for them than current Monday offerings. Perhaps to be safe ABC should pull part of next week's Tuesday lineup (namely Carpoolers in favor of extra Jim) and maybe run a 2 hour movie or something against the Death Star and then Primetime.
Originally posted by mushu_jj: Dumont I've also enjoyed watching your daily trackings. I have a feeling ABC will return to second by the end of sweeps, if only thanks to the Oscars and the anticipated upcoming made for TV movie, which should do no worse for them than current Monday offerings. Perhaps to be safe ABC should pull part of next week's Tuesday lineup (namely Carpoolers in favor of extra Jim) and maybe run a 2 hour movie or something against the Death Star and then Primetime.
Thanks mush.
I agree with you. The Oscars will give ABC a strong enough boost to go into second place.
Where the real fight is shaping up is for third place, where NBC has pulled ahead of CBS in demo and is inching up on CBS in viewers and households.
What is killing CBS is their inability to win any nights of the week (their sole demo win during the Sweep will be the Grammy Awards). I don't see CBS pulling any tricks in the final Sweep week, but NBC just might do something with a longer two-hour Deal or No Deal next Monday or Wednesday, and if its a night of somebody finally winning a briefcase of cash, it could deliver a big enough number to put NBC ahead of CBS in viewers and/or households.
To pull even to CBS in viewers, NBC has to beat CBS by 1.035m viewers per night over the next eight nights.
To pull even to CBS in households, NBC needs to best CBS by 0.8HH per night over the next eight nights.
CBS major weaknesses in the final eight days are 4 hours of low demo-HH-viewers Big Brother, appalling Saturday numbers and unexpectedly weak encore numbers from every series except CSI and Two and a Half Men.
Originally posted by mushu_jj: The strike is in no way going to help any shows. I don't think everything will necessarily lose viewers and the heavy hitters may be okay. Its the Brothers and Sister, the Sharks, the CSI:NYs, and the Ugly Bettys that I'm worried about losing viewers.
I think the show to watch will be CSI:Miami. It dipped a little too low here the last month. I think it may be the one CBS show hurt most by the strike.
CSI:NY as well. That show now has stronger competition in Law and Order. It should be a close battle between those 2 shows when they both are original. I also think Numbers will be weaker.
Numb3rs is in need of a new lead in more than anything. Its lead in dropped by 3 million on average this year and the demo dipped by about 0.5. Never good news. Lets hope they give it a special Friday 9pm CSI for a lead in that first week before Moonlight returns and not just a Moonlight repeat. I agree NY and Miami are in trouble but its not like Miami has much in terms of competition (or NY for that matter).
I have never been a big fan of CBS shows, so maybe this comment might be a bit bias, but I really think CBS is at the start of trouble for them. I think people are growing tired of all their crime dramas, and all of the repeats during the strike has just added to that. I could see CSI (original) and WAT doing well on Thursdays, but I really see a big downturn for all the rest of their shows.
People will NEVER get tired of crime dramas. It's by far the most reliable genre. And CBs did a great choice by becoming a crime drama network. They'll never be in the NBC kind of trouble. By the way i've heard that trouble will come for CBS for a long time. Maybe you can tell us more exactly when the trouble will come.
Originally posted by robert: People will NEVER get tired of crime dramas. It's by far the most reliable genre. And CBs did a great choice by becoming a crime drama network. They'll never be in the NBC kind of trouble. By the way i've heard that trouble will come for CBS for a long time. Maybe you can tell us more exactly when the trouble will come.
Well, it's not exactly going well for them right now.
Originally posted by AL: I have never been a big fan of CBS shows, so maybe this comment might be a bit bias, but I really think CBS is at the start of trouble for them. I think people are growing tired of all their crime dramas, and all of the repeats during the strike has just added to that. I could see CSI (original) and WAT doing well on Thursdays, but I really see a big downturn for all the rest of their shows.
I've been saying that all along.
Sure. If you say something like that for enough years, you will eventually be correct. Isn't that Marc (and others') strategy behind claiming that 'it is time for ER to end' for the last 5+ years of comments?
quote:
Eventually people will grow quite tired, just like ABC has realized that oversaturated lineups of female relationships are not going to cut it.
ABC relationship shows have a big problem than the CBS crime procedurals. The CBS shows have almost no plotline so people can watch dozens of them, out of order, etc... and never feel like they have missed anything. On the other hand, the relationship dramas on ABC 'require' the viewer to tune in every week to keep up on the ongoing plot. Therefore, there is a limit to how many of those shows a viewer can take on. A Wednesday night church group, Thursday night soccer kid's game, or Friday Happy Hour with co-workers can put a permanent crimp into keeping up with those shows. A normal person can only jam so much stuff onto their DVR and then actually slog through it all later. The rest of society just sets an upper limit on the number of those soaps they watch.
quote:
I don't see anything on the likes of Big Shots or Cashmere Mafia getting picked up next year unless they go forward with Cupid or whatever the hell that Rob Thomas disaster was called.
Cupid was a good show. Cupid will, in all likelyhood, be a disaster as a remake. I think you are correct in saying that ABC needs to limit taking on more soaps in the near future.
Originally posted by AL: I have never been a big fan of CBS shows, so maybe this comment might be a bit bias, but I really think CBS is at the start of trouble for them. I think people are growing tired of all their crime dramas, and all of the repeats during the strike has just added to that. I could see CSI (original) and WAT doing well on Thursdays, but I really see a big downturn for all the rest of their shows.
I've been saying that all along. Eventually people will grow quite tired, just like ABC has realized that oversaturated lineups of female relationships are not going to cut it. I don't see anything on the likes of Big Shots or Cashmere Mafia getting picked up next year unless they go forward with Cupid or whatever the hell that Rob Thomas disaster was called.
How do you see people growing tired of the CBS shows? They still pulled 8-12 million viewers (depending on the show) after 2-3 months of nothing but repeats. Most ABC and NBC shows can't even do that with new episodes.
mushu_jj, you were saying the CBS crime shows were on the outs last spring, but come this past fall, they were just as strong as ever.
Yes, EVENTUALLY, tastes will change, but that doesn't appear to be anytime soon. Perhaps 5-10 years doen the road. But, I will remember that mushu_jj was the FIRST to predict it.
