Originally posted by dumont: Given the trends of the past week shown by surging NBC and flagging CBS, I have projected how the two networks will finish up the February Sweep. Based on my projection, I am quite confident that NBC will indeed surpass CBS for third place in viewers, and will tie CBS for third place in households as follows:
At this point, CBS's only way to stave off fourth place in viewers for the February Sweep is to pull from the air the three hours of low-rated Big Brother on Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
Does Mr. Moonves have the bottle to cancel his wife's program?
And what's your prediction for ABC -- your post makes the assumption that they will pass NBC and take second. I agree, since they have the Oscars on Sunday, but curious to see where your estimate places them.
ABC's #2 in households is very dependent upon how well "A Raisin in the Sun" does or does not. Given the huge promotional push it is receiving (and will receive in Oscar Awards show spots), I am estimating a 10.0HH, 4.0 A18-49, 11.500m viewers for it.
Originally posted by dumont: Given the trends of the past week shown by surging NBC and flagging CBS, I have projected how the two networks will finish up the February Sweep. Based on my projection, I am quite confident that NBC will indeed surpass CBS for third place in viewers, and will tie CBS for third place in households as follows:
At this point, CBS's only way to stave off fourth place in viewers for the February Sweep is to pull from the air the three hours of low-rated Big Brother on Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
Does Mr. Moonves have the bottle to cancel his wife's program?
And what's your prediction for ABC -- your post makes the assumption that they will pass NBC and take second. I agree, since they have the Oscars on Sunday, but curious to see where your estimate places them.
ABC's #2 in households is very dependent upon how well "A Raisin in the Sun" does or does not. Given the huge promotional push it is receiving (and will receive in Oscar Awards show spots), I am estimating a 10.0HH, 4.0 A18-49, 11.500m viewers for it.
The viewers sound about right (could go as high as 13 mil, as low as 11), but I would downward revise the demo slightly (I think in the high 3's), and the HH seems very high -- probably closer to an 8.0.
I am excited about this news of anthony anderson (i.e antwon mitchell) on law and order. Jesse Martin was great for a long time, but change can help programs like this fresh.
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As to Buffy (and Roswell) switcing from the WB to UPN, its a different comparison. At the time UPN and the WB roughly had a similar market share. So it wasn't a matter of worrying to much about a show losing a large number of stations that they air on.
Right, but it did anyway. Partly because network switches rarely work. And partly because the UPN episodes REALLY sucked.
quote:
This typically wouldn't happen for most "cast offs" from other networks. Unless the show was already a big media darling. And even though Friday Night Lights (as a current example) is a critically loved show, it doesn't get much attention in the public's eye.
Yes, Buffy's switcharooni was an unusually well-heralded one. And it still didn't work out very well for UPN, OR for Buffy. Do you REALLY think Joss Whedon chose to end the show with the 7th season? Then how come he's continuing the show in comic book form, and calling it the 8th season?
quote:
You can tell based on the huge numbers that Star Trek was able to generate with their two pilots that netlets can with a huge Brand name (and lets face it while Trek hasn't been a good weekly performer on tv, it was still a huge brand for people to check out) deliver an audience over 10 million. Then you just have to manage to keep it.
But these days, you almost certainly can't, because the audience has too many choices, and the production talent is spread too thin.
Actually Buffy's move certainly was a benefit to the studio and the cast and crew of Buffy who had two additional seasons of income (not to mention an increased episode count for syndication and DVD sales).
Season 5 averaged 4.4 million viewers. Season 6 averaged 4.6 million viewers, so it did show growth. And with Roswell performing worse then Angel it did it with less of a lead out. Its final season averaged 4.2 million (with Roswell gone it had abysmal lead out programming that generally performed at 50% of Buffy, or less). Which reflects a loss of 4.55% over a two year period (and a smaller decrease then what it had had in two years on the WB (where it lost a million viewers on average).
Now whether this was worth the 2.2 million fee per episode to UPN I don't know. I do know the actress didn't want a season 8 (and they would have had to renegotiate a contract with her). This might have been the bigger issue then its small loss in viewers.
As to why Whedon has recently been writing a Buffy comic might have a lot more to do with his current lack of success in tv and film, then his feelings about whether the show should have had a 8th season.
And Buffy did manage teh point I was talking about. Getting a big sampling for its first episode on a new network. Most shows wouldn't do that (not even close).
Though most of the top 5 shows on tv could manage an intial sampling over ten million, its very questionable if they would be able to hold them (without companion programming that also has widespread appeal), and I feel would certainly decline quickly.
An example, take Enterprise and Buffy both opened the same seasonon UPN. Do you personally feel both shows (with the same episodes produced, thus the same level of quality) fallen percentage wise as much if they were on the same night, instead of both being placed with far, far weaker lead out programming? I don't (but I also understand why they weren't, and that shows can't depend on having great lead in or lead out support, but it is a factor on how a show can do).
I feel the same way if a major show from one of the big 4 would go to CW (which of course, would never, ever, ever happen). Without lead in (or out) their ratings would errode.
Regarding the CW's ills... there are a few factors at motion.
- The network logo, name, everything is completely irrelevant to young people. It doesn't scream "cool." I would even go so far as to say that something like The N is more culturally relevant to young people, and that one banks on mostly old reruns or Canadian programming. (Actually, to pick up Degrassi and run it at a low-rated Sunday slot wouldn't kill them...) Seriously, though: Why should cable be getting the shows their coveted demographic likes, the Hannah Montanas and such of the world? Not that I'm saying it's a good thing...
- There are too many egos involved. Take their first year out - the only shows picked up for the network were those already in development by Ostroff and UPN. Aquaman (which did well on iTunes and at least has buzzed) was passed over in favor of Runaway which barely lasted, and the reliable Everwood was forgotten. It really seemed to be the "continue UPN and add a few WB shows" network, with the UPN stuff taking priority.
- On that same note, take into consideration what they did with "Reba" - ironically, it got higher ratings than most of the rest of the CW's sitcoms. Oops.
- Shuffling schedules: How are people supposed to latch onto shows when only Top Model, the Thursday shows, and Smackdown are in the same place from week to week?
I don't think they should "cancel the network" just yet... but if they have 5-year deals with their affiliates, they seriously need to consider their future strategy. I think they should try at least one revamp before pulling the plug entirely.
I was recently reading the book "Season Finale" about the rise and fall of the WB & UPN and it was pretty clear that the more creative folks were on the WB side... yet for whatever reason, the UPN people were the ones driving the car once the new network started.
One thing that book brought up that was mentioned here was whether or not the "Buffy" move helped UPN - I'm not totally sure about that, but that was the first blow and sign that the WB was failing. It was all downhill from there.
In season-premiere news, the CW’s golden goose, America’s Next Top Model, got off to a modest start, with 3.80 million viewers (#5) and a 1.9/ 5 among adults 18-49 (#4t) at 8 p.m. Although there should be interest among the target young females, comparatively this was down by 1.1 million viewers and 21 percent in the demo from its fall season-premiere on Wednesday, Sept. 26, 2007 (Viewers: 4.90 million; A18-49: 2.4/ 7).
Developing ANTM for UPN (or at least being in charge of UPN while it was developed) was pretty much Ostroff's sole accomplishment of note, if you want to call it an accomplishment. But even if you do--not such a terribly enduring accomplishment, was it?
It really is past time to fire Ostroff.
And if that doesn't work, it'll be time to CANCEL THE CW.
Her biggest mistake was not shootong my pilot 3 years ago!!!!
still lurking!!!
Posts: 185 | Location: Los Angeles | Registered: 03 January 2008
Originally posted by dumont: Given the trends of the past week shown by surging NBC and flagging CBS, I have projected how the two networks will finish up the February Sweep. Based on my projection, I am quite confident that NBC will indeed surpass CBS for third place in viewers, and will tie CBS for third place in households as follows:
At this point, CBS's only way to stave off fourth place in viewers for the February Sweep is to pull from the air the three hours of low-rated Big Brother on Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
Does Mr. Moonves have the bottle to cancel his wife's program?
Probably not. Whatever she has done has kept her (the worst news broadcaster on television) unscathed from CBS News. So I doubt he has the balls to pull off BB.
In season-premiere news, the CW’s golden goose, America’s Next Top Model, got off to a modest start, with 3.80 million viewers (#5) and a 1.9/ 5 among adults 18-49 (#4t) at 8 p.m. Although there should be interest among the target young females, comparatively this was down by 1.1 million viewers and 21 percent in the demo from its fall season-premiere on Wednesday, Sept. 26, 2007 (Viewers: 4.90 million; A18-49: 2.4/ 7).
Developing ANTM for UPN (or at least being in charge of UPN while it was developed) was pretty much Ostroff's sole accomplishment of note, if you want to call it an accomplishment. But even if you do--not such a terribly enduring accomplishment, was it?
It really is past time to fire Ostroff.
And if that doesn't work, it'll be time to CANCEL THE CW.
Her biggest mistake was not shootong my pilot 3 years ago!!!!
still lurking!!!
Hey! Get back to work. We are waiting for some fresh shows!
Actually Buffy's move certainly was a benefit to the studio and the cast and crew of Buffy who had two additional seasons of income (not to mention an increased episode count for syndication and DVD sales).
WB wasn't going to cancel Buffy, the way I heard it. They just got outbid. They probably ended up feeling like they got the better end of that deal--and UPN got the other end. And UPN certainly didn't spend all that money for two seasons, and ratings that refused to stop falling.
"Taxi" was always a time slot hit. To suggest it was going to singlehandedly boost a lineup and a network that were both in the toilet when millions of "Three's Company" fans changed the channel on it the second it started is unrealistic. Not even Tartikoff and Tinker were expecting that from it. In the grand scheme of what NBC was doing from 8:00-10:00 that season, it did what was to be expected. Flash forward 3 years, it would have been in the Top 20. Again, the magic power of lead-ins.
Flash forward three years, the ratings would have been even worse, because the show would have gone on deteriorating creatively. It would have been an anchor in the BAD sense of the word. I'm glad it got that syndication season, but that was NBC doing Taxi a solid, not the other way around.
Maybe it helped bring some ABC sitcom viewers over to NBC's Thursday night lineup, who then stayed for the golden years yet to come. But like you said, that lineup would have prospered without Taxi. It DID prosper without Taxi.
Network switches rarely work, because a show that can't perform well enough on one network to stay on it is going to perform even worse on a new network. End of discussion. Workday over. G'night!
