You guys are all forgetting JAG, which went from NBC to CBS and was even more successful for several more seasons, and spun-off current big hit NCIS.
Also, Baywatch went from NBC to syndication after 1 season and became legendary.

But I don't think either example would pan out for a show going from the big-4 to the CW, based on all the reasons I and others provided previously.

quote:

Originally posted by Bruce:
LAS VEGAS - cancellation entirely predictable based on this history:

2 1/2 yrs in while still doing 7-8 HR and 3+ demo the show was moved to friday.

The show could have plugged numerous holes in the 06-07 season but was kept on friday.

Was given FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS as a lead-in this season.

They probably would've been better off in general had they stuck with the original plan of Vegas at 9 and FNL at 10, as Vegas may have been a bigger-demo lead-in for FNL than Deal ever was. Then again, they probably would have been still better off had they just canceled FNL.

I think it was one of those shows, and NBC has had a lot of them, that just didn't fit with anything else on the schedule. Right before it was moved to Friday, I think it was sandwiched between Surface and Medium, and I can't imagine there were a whole lot of people watching all three of those shows. Even pulling 3.5 or so in mid-season 3, it was way down from a year previous, and they probably figured it had nowhere to go but farther down.

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Well the only show (that I am aware of switching) was the CBS show Wolflake (not sure on the title), and it suffered a large drop in viewers.

Right. Because it sucked. And parenthetically, somebody I used to have terrific fights with online ended up having a pilot passed on by UPN in favor of Wolf Lake. And the premise of that pilot was basically identical to the premise of Heroes--and in fact, the show was going to be CALLED "Heroes". True story!

quote:

As to Buffy (and Roswell) switcing from the WB to UPN, its a different comparison. At the time UPN and the WB roughly had a similar market share. So it wasn't a matter of worrying to much about a show losing a large number of stations that they air on.

Right, but it did anyway. Partly because network switches rarely work. And partly because the UPN episodes REALLY sucked.

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This typically wouldn't happen for most "cast offs" from other networks. Unless the show was already a big media darling. And even though Friday Night Lights (as a current example) is a critically loved show, it doesn't get much attention in the public's eye.

Yes, Buffy's switcharooni was an unusually well-heralded one. And it still didn't work out very well for UPN, OR for Buffy. Do you REALLY think Joss Whedon chose to end the show with the 7th season? Then how come he's continuing the show in comic book form, and calling it the 8th season?

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You can tell based on the huge numbers that Star Trek was able to generate with their two pilots that netlets can with a huge Brand name (and lets face it while Trek hasn't been a good weekly performer on tv, it was still a huge brand for people to check out) deliver an audience over 10 million. Then you just have to manage to keep it.

But these days, you almost certainly can't, because the audience has too many choices, and the production talent is spread too thin.

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You guys are all forgetting JAG, which went from NBC to CBS and was even more successful for several more seasons, and spun-off current big hit NCIS.

Fair enough, but that's a successful show becoming more successful, not a failed show becoming successful.

As to Baywatch, everybody knows Hasselhoff made a Satanic pact to keep that thing on.

Very true. FOX did not become a major network until they spend an exorbitant amount of $$ on getting the Football Games telecast on FOX. Before, that, people didn't even consider it a real network.

quote:

Originally posted by blackfury:
If they are going to spend money to make money,

Let's not forget that WB was a decent performer. So we're not talking about a new network that doesn't catch on (that's understandable), we're talking about a decent network that now has become a disaster.

That's what surprises me, such a quick downfall

quote:

Originally posted by blackfury:
If they are going to spend money to make money, I suggest bringing over a show or two from CBS. For some reason, it appears as though they are so fixated on the young base, they are driving away everyone overall. Young people do watch things other than gossip girl, supernatural, or reality. Also, I remember when Buffy came over from UPN. Although this was weblet to weblet, the show did fine as I recall. Unfortunately, it was not pulling down 30 million or even 10 million but it was solid by UPN or WB numbers. The challenge is that some shows are moving over to new networks when they have already peaked. So, the ratings were going to decrease anyway. Hence, you cannot blame that on it being on a different network. Out of curiousity, I wonder what an AI, NCIS, DH, or CSI would do on the CW. Could they get above 10 million viewers consistently?

I don't think CBS has any shows outside of How I Met Your Mother and The Big Bang Theory that might even come close to fitting the demo of the CW.

It is not that The CW's philosophy of going after the young demo is bad. It is that they have dissected that demo to only girls 12-24. They really need to blow that back up to all gender 12-34 and cross program across the range with shows that have story lines that appeal up and down. But in the end, teenage girls who are pretty, popular, smart or athletic will not be sitting around watching television, they will be doing other things.

Smackdown leaving is not bad. It gets rid of a square peg for a round hole. Now all you can do is hope the CW doesn't try and go more towards the female demo. Reaper was a good try, strike killed it before it had a chance to fight through early episode blues. I mean as it stands rumors of Friday Night Lights and October Road heading to the CW don't bode well although I think FNL could actually find a loyal audience on The CW for a couple of seasons.

Well IMO CW has just one chance of growing: it HAS to somehow produce a hit show (by that i understand at least 6 million viewers). Taht would pull up the other shows also.
But given the state of CW finding such a show would be a miracle.

Programs that NBC tried (successful or not) to ruin for the past 2 years:

2006-2007 Season: Crossing Jordan, Law and Order
2007-2008 Season: Las Vegas, 1 v.s. 100
Prediction for 2008-2009 Season: Medium

Most of CBS's shows that get 10+ million are not going leaving the channel anytime soon. And why would CBS prop up a CBS2 that would just steal its own viewers? There is still room for the WB channel and its directed demo programming, but another channel trying to compete with the Big 4 in their programming style would crash and burn faster than The CW is.

quote:

Originally posted by TV-aholic:
Most of SBC's shows get 10+ million, so I would think, if the CW reinvented itself, that about 1/2 could switch over.

If it is just a show or 2 and the CW stays the same as it is now, then you are right. 3-4 million is all they will get.

quote:

Originally posted by Texas Bound:

quote:

Originally posted by TV-aholic:
True, but the CW would grow froma 2.3 million viewer average and a .9 demo rating to a 5 million average and a 1.8 demo rating.

They would start getting shows that have 6-7 million viewers, regularly. Then that could then roll into more eyes checking out shows like Smallville and Reaper.

quote:

Originally posted by Chimera:
Even if they move those shows from CBS to the CW, they wouldn't bring along the ratings they had while airing on CBS. The CW has a far smaller reach, far smaller advertising platform, and the ratings of ANTM is about as high they can get without significantly altering who they are (stations, reach, etc).

In no way can you assume that 90% of a show's audience move to a new network. I don't know if you can assume 50% would move with it.

Given the trends of the past week shown by surging NBC and flagging CBS, I have projected how the two networks will finish up the February Sweep. Based on my projection, I am quite confident that NBC will indeed surpass CBS for third place in viewers, and will tie CBS for third place in households as follows:

NBC: A18-49 2.5 (#3), 5.2HH (#3-tie). 7.948m viewers (#3)
CBS: A18-49 2.2 (#4), 5.2HH (#3-tie), 7.866m viewers (#4)

At this point, CBS's only way to stave off fourth place in viewers for the February Sweep is to pull from the air the three hours of low-rated Big Brother on Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

Does Mr. Moonves have the bottle to cancel his wife's program?

I think the best suggestion I've seen was from TV-aholic who had suggested something more along the lines of an all comedy type of lineup that has worked to some extent on TBS.

The demo that the CW is going for is already being courted by countless cable channels already - (MTV, VH1, Spike, GTV, GSN to name a few off the top of my head) and MNTV.

The CW needs to look for a more mass appeal niche that isn't strictly geared for under 30 year olds. The comedy idea could stretch across young and old (along the lines of Reba), however, they need to put a little more money into finding a quality writing team. Heck, they are spending less on the production costs, they can splurge a little here. I'd still resurrect The Class even if it was with different actors. That would fit well into my imaginary format.

quote:

Originally posted by Texas Bound:
Most of CBS's shows that get 10+ million are not going leaving the channel anytime soon. And why would CBS prop up a CBS2 that would just steal its own viewers? There is still room for the WB channel and its directed demo programming, but another channel trying to compete with the Big 4 in their programming style would crash and burn faster than The CW is.

quote:

Originally posted by TV-aholic:
Most of SBC's shows get 10+ million, so I would think, if the CW reinvented itself, that about 1/2 could switch over.

If it is just a show or 2 and the CW stays the same as it is now, then you are right. 3-4 million is all they will get.

quote:

Originally posted by Texas Bound:

quote:

Originally posted by TV-aholic:
True, but the CW would grow froma 2.3 million viewer average and a .9 demo rating to a 5 million average and a 1.8 demo rating.

They would start getting shows that have 6-7 million viewers, regularly. Then that could then roll into more eyes checking out shows like Smallville and Reaper.

quote:

Originally posted by Chimera:
Even if they move those shows from CBS to the CW, they wouldn't bring along the ratings they had while airing on CBS. The CW has a far smaller reach, far smaller advertising platform, and the ratings of ANTM is about as high they can get without significantly altering who they are (stations, reach, etc).

In no way can you assume that 90% of a show's audience move to a new network. I don't know if you can assume 50% would move with it.

Leave Big Brother alone Dumont.

Don't you have some more Caveman letters to create and pester ABC with?

quote:

Originally posted by dumont:
Given the trends of the past week shown by surging NBC and flagging CBS, I have projected how the two networks will finish up the February Sweep. Based on my projection, I am quite confident that NBC will indeed surpass CBS for third place in viewers, and will tie CBS for third place in households as follows:

NBC: A18-49 2.5 (#3), 5.2HH (#3-tie). 7.948m viewers (#3)
CBS: A18-49 2.2 (#4), 5.2HH (#3-tie), 7.866m viewers (#4)

At this point, CBS's only way to stave off fourth place in viewers for the February Sweep is to pull from the air the three hours of low-rated Big Brother on Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

Does Mr. Moonves have the bottle to cancel his wife's program?

quote:

Originally posted by pisher:
But had more of an audience, week after week. There was just an aura around it. You knew it was going to be a hit, even while looking at the ratings.

I knew "Greg the Bunny" was going to be a hit, even while looking at the ratings. What I knew is irrelevant, I guess, because Gail Berman didn't know that.

I liked "Cheers" the first year it was on. I was one of the few people watching it. I couldn't understand why no else was. I can't understand why few people are watching "30 Rock" now. I'd like to think it has the aura around it that someday people will, but perhaps I don't know what I think I do.

There is no denying the fact that "Cheers" was a dreadful lead-in in terms of ratings (not compatibility) from Sep-Dec 1982. Only the biggest smash hits on television are impervious to lead-in poison. Even some of them would probably be affected were a lead weight to be placed in front of them. Say, hypothetically speaking, FOX were to bring back "The Rebel Billionaire" from the dead and decided to use it as a lead-in for "House" once again. No, "House" won't get the ratings it got its first season, but it sure as hell isn't going to get the ratings it gets when it's on after "American Idol." It might not even get the ratings it gets when it's on after "Bones." Nielsen clunkers have an adverse effect to the shows around them. Case in point: "Moontrite" and "Numb3rs."

Why did "Cheers" ratings improve midway through its freshman year? Because they shifted it to 9:30 and put "Gimme a Break!" on before it.

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Again, the lead-in is beside the point. Taxi moved from one major network to another major network, and there was tons of promotion, and as an established show, it was supposed to be helping out the new shows, not the other way around.

NBC put it at 9:30. If it was supposed to be helping out the lineup, they would have had it anchor an hour.

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It didn't do that. Because much of its ABC audience went on watching whatever came on after Barney Miller, and didn't make the jump to NBC.

Those must some pretty loyal viewers to continue watching the show on ABC after it ceased not only to be on ABC but to exist entirely!

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Taxi had many ardent fans, but it did not have a large audience that would follow it anywhere. Few shows do.

"Taxi" was always a time slot hit. To suggest it was going to singlehandedly boost a lineup and a network that were both in the toilet when millions of "Three's Company" fans changed the channel on it the second it started is unrealistic. Not even Tartikoff and Tinker were expecting that from it. In the grand scheme of what NBC was doing from 8:00-10:00 that season, it did what was to be expected. Flash forward 3 years, it would have been in the Top 20. Again, the magic power of lead-ins.

quote:

And honestly, when you think of the classic Taxi eps--do you think of ONE that premiered on NBC? The show changed very little, but somehow it was never the same. The energy was gone.

I can think of 2. Meantime, I can think of 15 that were terrible, sure. But the show had bad episodes in all years. And Marilu Henner was always bad. She's a better actress on "Celeb Apprentice" than she was on that.

quote:

Network switches very VERY rarely work. And when you're talking about switching a failed major network show to a weblet, you're talking about something that has NEVER worked.

It's almost guaranteed not to work. Certainly the shows being suggested are not going to. But I think "For Your Love" did okay on the WB for a time. The only thing that stood against was that Jordan Levin hated it. Though he loved "Grounded for Life," which didn't do so well... although he tried to tell you otherwise.

quote:

Originally posted by dumont:
Given the trends of the past week shown by surging NBC and flagging CBS, I have projected how the two networks will finish up the February Sweep. Based on my projection, I am quite confident that NBC will indeed surpass CBS for third place in viewers, and will tie CBS for third place in households as follows:

NBC: A18-49 2.5 (#3), 5.2HH (#3-tie). 7.948m viewers (#3)
CBS: A18-49 2.2 (#4), 5.2HH (#3-tie), 7.866m viewers (#4)

At this point, CBS's only way to stave off fourth place in viewers for the February Sweep is to pull from the air the three hours of low-rated Big Brother on Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

Does Mr. Moonves have the bottle to cancel his wife's program?

And what's your prediction for ABC -- your post makes the assumption that they will pass NBC and take second. I agree, since they have the Oscars on Sunday, but curious to see where your estimate places them.