http://www.medialifemagazine.com/artman2/publish/Televi...eading_by_a_nose.aspThis fall, figure
ABC leading by a nose
But fourth quarter is looking like a much closer race
By Kevin Downey
Aug 15, 2008
Last November, ABC enjoyed a solid lead in primetime, and it went on from there to win the fourth quarter.
Come this November, ABC will again be ahead in 18-49s, but its lead will likely be a lot narrower, and while it will probably win again in fourth quarter, it too will be a far slimmer victory.
ABC's biggest challenge will come from Fox, but CBS and NBC will also be close behind.
ABC's strength will come from “Grey’s Anatomy,” “Desperate Housewives” and two-and-a-half hours of “Dancing with the Stars,” which last year was the second-ranked show behind "American Idol."
"'Dancing with the Stars' will carry them and ‘Grey’s Anatomy’ will obviously do well,” says Jordan Breslow, director of broadcast research at MediaCom. He sees "Housewives" also doing well after a plot makeover that pushes the comedy's storyline ahead five years.
“They have some holes to fill but, overall in fourth quarter, ABC looks fairly good,” says Breslow.
ABC's one worry may be “Dancing," whose audience slipped last season. Also, that show goes dark for several weeks after the November sweeps rating period for local stations. But then with roughly 19 million viewers, it still pulls in far more viewers than most other shows.
ABC will have the edge most nights of the week.
It will win Mondays while "Dancing" is on the air. And the network will be competitive on Wednesdays with three returning dramas, including “Dirty Sexy Money” at 10. It’ll have the edge over CBS on Thursdays on the strength of “Grey’s” and it’ll dominate Saturdays in 18-49s with college football.
Last season through November, ABC had a 3.9 rating in 18-49s, and it had just come off its third consecutive November sweeps win. CBS had a 3.5, while NBC and Fox tied with a 3.4.
But going into this fall, Fox is that much stronger, building on the gains it achieved last fall.
After years of stumbling in fourth quarter, Fox last year scaled back on post-season baseball and loaded up on original programming, enabling it to post a 13 percent year-to-year increase through the quarter. Its strongest shows included “House,” “Kitchen Nightmares” and its Sunday block of animated shows such as “Family Guy.”
Those shows are returning this fall, and Fox is also adding “Fringe” on Tuesdays from “Lost” creator J. J. Abrams.
How "Fringe" does will be critical for both Fox and ABC. It's probably the most-anticipated new series this season and if it hits, Fox could beat ABC for the quarter.
In fact, Shari Anne Brill, senior vice president and director of programming at Carat, is projecting a fourth quarter tie between ABC and Fox, based on C3 – commercial ratings for live viewing plus three days of DVR playback.
As for NBC, it will be competitive on Thursdays with sitcoms and the final season of “ER,” and it’ll do well with “Sunday Night Football.”
CBS will do well on Mondays with sitcoms and “CSI: Miami,” on Tuesdays with “Without a Trace” at 10, on Thursdays with “CSI” and Fridays with three dramas.
Handicapping the full season for ABC is a bit harder. So much will depend on where fourth quarter ends up and what new shows debut at midseason. But it looks in good shape to rank No. 2 behind Fox, which will again win on the power of "American Idol," still broadcast's top-rated show by a large margin.
“Dancing” and “Lost” return in first quarter. And ABC has a few shows in the works for midseason that should do well, including the long-running reality show “Bachelor” and a new animated sitcom called “Goode Family” that media buyers like.
“Our feeling is that ABC will come in second for the full season,” says David Scardino, entertainment specialist at RPA in Santa Monica, Calif. “But if anybody can knock out Fox, it’s ABC. They’re in good shape.”
