abc well-armed for strikeCome January,
ABC looks well-armed
After Fox, the network has the strongest schedule
The broadcast networks are solidly into Plan B when it comes to midseason. With a dwindling supply of unscripted shows as the writers’ strike drags on, primetime lineups will increasingly be loaded up with repeats and middling reality shows.
Of the five networks, Fox, with the returning "American Idol," is the one least at risk of seeing its ratings tumble.
But not all that far behind is ABC, which will finish the first half of the season No.1 among adult 18-49 viewers.
ABC is not without problems if the strike goes on much longer, with its two top shows, “Grey’s Anatomy” and “Desperate Housewives,” in reruns.
But the network has the advantage of returning reality hit “Dancing with the Stars” and a slew of midseason shows that were in the works even before the strike began. For sure, few if any of these shows are likely to be huge hits but they will be fresh content, and that fresh content will likely outperform reruns on other networks.
That positions ABC to run No. 2 behind Fox in 18-49 in the second half of the season, which happens to be where media pundits had expected it to be without a strike.
“I think they’re in marginally better shape than CBS and probably a lot better than NBC if I had to rank it at this point,” says David Scardino, entertainment specialist at Rubin Postaer and Associates.
“Everybody’s going to be running repeats, and given the way repeats perform, everybody’s going to have a problem. Then the question is what they’ve got that’s new. In that respect, I think ABC’s in pretty good shape.”
ABC’s biggest gun is “Dancing,” which ranks No. 7 in 18-49s among all shows so far this season. A spinoff, “Dance War,” will run for six weeks starting next month. “Dancing” returns in March.
“That’s going to do fine,” says Brad Adgate, senior vice president and corporate research director at Horizon Media. “At first, I thought they’d be capitalizing too much on ‘Dancing with the Stars.’ But facing limited competition, I think there’s room for it.”
Another promising new reality show is “Oprah’s Big Give.”
It also has several new midseason shows with enough episodes to carry them into the spring, including newcomers “Eli Stone,” a legal drama, and “Cashmere Mafia” from the creator of HBO’s “Sex and the City.”
In addition, ABC has a handful of returning scripted shows with unaired episodes, including “Lost,” which has eight episodes ready to air, and the modestly rated sitcom “According to Jim," as well as a few unaired episodes of ongoing series like “Men in Trees,” “Boston Legal” and the weak second-year drama “October Road.” It's also stocked up on bombs like “Cavemen.”
Meanwhile, midlevel reality shows “Wife Swap” and “Supernanny” are expected on the lineup soon. Neither is a major hit but each generates consistently decent ratings.
ABC's main problem going into midseason is that its highest-rated shows, “Desperate” and “Grey’s,” do not repeat well, losing roughly half their viewers. That makes it tougher for ABC to promote other series, notes John Spiropoulos, vice president and group research director at MediaVest.
“New shows don’t have a platform to be launched off of,” he says. “Even though there is original content, if people don’t know it’s there that makes it tough for ABC.”
The risk is that that one weakness could give CBS an edge, allowing it to slip past ABC to finish No. 2 for the season behind Fox.
