http://www.medialifemagazine.com/artman/publish/article_12290.aspBuyers bet on ABC
to win next season
New shows will give it the heft to beat Fox
By Diego Vasquez
May 23, 2007
Fox has "American Idol," whose continuing strength will earn it its third straight win in adult 18-49 viewers when the season ends tonight. But when it comes to next season, ABC has the best wishes of media buyers working in its favor.
By a slight margin, buyers think ABC will win the coming season based on the strength of its new shows, which were previewed to media buyers in last week's upfront presentations.
That's the outcome of a Media Life survey on Monday, posted to get buyers' reactions to the broadcast networks' fall schedules.
Asked which of the Big Four networks will win the 2007-'08 season in adults 18-49, 44.5 percent picked ABC, versus 41.6 percent for Fox.
CBS finished well behind at 9.5 percent and NBC came in at half that, 4.4 percent.
Of the Big Four, ABC has by far the strongest lineup in the view of buyers, despite the fact that it is airing the most new shows, 10, next season.
Asked which network has the strongest schedule for 2007-’08, ABC got 54 percent of the vote, twice what CBS earned, at 25.5 percent. Fox came in at 13.1 percent and NBC at 7.3 percent.
No surprise, then, that NBC came in as the network with the least promising schedule for the coming season.
Asked who has the weakest schedule, NBC led at 52.9 percent, with Fox second at 25.7 percent. CBS came in at 14.0 percent and ABC at 7.4 percent.
The poll left the CW off these first questions because it is so much smaller, choosing to address the new network in a separate question.
That question: What do you think of the CW's new schedule?
The answers were encouraging. More than a third, 34.8 percent, agreed with the statement: "It's a huge improvement over last year. The nights have better flow to them, and several of the pilots looked promising."
A slightly larger share, 35.6 percent, think it's about the same, agreeing with the statement: "No better, no worse. The network still doesn’t seem sure of its identity, although I do like some of its advertising ideas like the cwickies."
A much smaller share, 12.6 percent, think the network's new lineup looks even less promising, agreeing with the statement: "It's even worse than last year. Its new shows stink. Without aging but solid shows like 'Gilmore Girls' and '7th Heaven' to prop it up, I fear the network will fall even further."
And then there's the remaining 17 percent, fans of "Veronica Mars" and clearly irked that the show was canceled. They agreed with the statement: "Who cares? Now that 'Veronica Mars' is gone, the CW is dead to me."
Media Life was most curious how readers rated the new shows announced last week.
Readers had strong opinions, both regarding the most and least promising.
Asked to name the most promising new comedy, they chose “Back to You” on Fox at 35.6 percent, followed by "Sam I Am" on ABC at 27.4 percent.
“Aliens in America” on the CW got 10.4 percent, "Carpoolers" on ABC got 9.6 percent, and “The Big Bang Theory" on CBS got 11.1 percent. ABC's "Cavemen" got just 5.5 percent.
That show also got knocked as the worst new comedy, and by a wide margin. Asked to name the least promising new comedy, readers chose it overwhelmingly, at 59.1 percent.
And the most promising new fall dramas?
The top three are airing on ABC, as it turns out: "Pushing Daisies” at 18.8 percent, “Private Practice” at 15.2 percent, and "Dirty Sexy Money” at 10.9 percent.
The least-promising new drama, according to readers, is NBC's "Bionic Woman."
Asked to vote on the least promising new dramas, readers ranked it No. 1 at 20.4. No. 2 was “Viva Laughlin” on CBS at 16.1 percent, with "K-Ville” on Fox No. 3 at 8.8 percent.
Also, Media Life asked readers what they thought was the most pressing issue facing the networks going into next season.
The No. 1 choice: "Can NBC rebound after three down seasons?" at 42.3 percent.
The second choice: "Will the recent ratings declines continue into next season?" at 33.6 percent.
Readers seemed not particularly concerned over the CW and its struggles. Just 10.2 percent chose: "Can the CW rebound after a disappointing first year?"
Even fewer thought Fox's fall curse was worth sweating over, with just 4.4 percent choosing it as a noteworthy issue.
Finally, Media Life asked “What is your biggest concern after seeing the schedules?”
Many were worried about NBC’s sci-fi-heavy schedule, while others were disappointed by the large number of reality shows. Still others were displeased with all the networks’ new shows.
Here’s what a few readers had to say:
“By the end of December I expect to see ABC and CBS in a near tie (CBS miscalculated with its new choices and that's going to hurt them), NBC and FOX won't be that much better off than they were last December (NBC picked a real weak batch of new dramas, so it may actually do worse, especially without two of its ‘Law & Orders’), and CW will be down a few decimal points, with ‘Reaper’ as the only new show looking good for them. Overall, it looks like we should just skip the stillborn likes of next season and just fast-forward to fall '08.”
“I now wonder if NBC will ever recover. Do they really think people will flock to their sci-fi heavy schedule just because ‘Heroes’ was a hit? If anything viewers will tire of sci-fi shows, and the whole genre, including ‘Heroes,’ will slip.”
“Is TV still relevant?”
“We need better and smarter comedies.”
“Nothing stands out as a sure mega hit.”
“I have so many [concerns] that I can't believe real professionals actually program these networks. For example - CBS has decided to ‘youthanize’ again, by bringing in all sorts of weird programs. I understand the almighty 18-34 group, but to change directions so abruptly makes no sense. This time next year, I'm betting none of those new shows make it and they'll be switching courses again.”
