From MediaLifeMagazine:
http://www.medialifemagazine.com/artman/publish/article_11093.aspGauging the fate
of the bubble shows
A lot of factors go into deciding which come back
By Diego Vasquez
Mar 29, 2007
Five years ago, a show like “Friday Night Lights,” which is averaging a limp 2.3 adults 18-49 rating, would never have been renewed. Its ratings were simply too low. But these days, with only two new shows averaging above a 4.0 rating and 18-49 viewership generally more fractured, networks are willing to take more chances on promising but low-rated programs. That makes it even more difficult for media people to predict which bubble shows, the programs whose renewal status remains in question until the upfront, will return. This year there are a lot of programs on the bubble, including both new and veteran shows whose ratings have been disappointing but may return nonetheless. Fourth-place NBC, for example, is likely to renew the struggling “Lights” and also new comedy “30 Rock” because it believes they are high-quality shows. Longtime household leader CBS, whose new comedy “The Class” rates higher than both, can afford to be more selective, and “Class” likely won’t return. The networks have begun the process of making these decisions, with ABC announcing a slew of renewals last week and the other networks expected to do the same as May’s upfronts near. To evaluate which bubble shows have the best shots and why, Media Life spoke to two media veterans, Campbell Mithun senior vice president and director of media negotiations John Rash and MediaCom director of broadcast research Jordan Breslow.
When networks evaluate what on-the-bubble shows to renew, what are the factors they take into consideration?
Rash: On-the-bubble shows are evaluated on multiple qualitative and quantitative factors, including -- but not exclusive of -- the creative merits of the show, the ratings trends, the competitive landscape, and what a potential replacement would be.
Breslow: You obviously want to see how well it’s holding up in the ratings, but also how much of the lead-in show’s audience does it retain? There are some instances when you would expect falloff, like with “American Idol” or “Grey’s Anatomy,” but how much is tolerable? You can have a show that has a small rating, but if it holds on to most of its lead-in, it could still be a strong show.
Has this changed over the years? That is, has anything become more important in making these decisions than it used to be?
Rash: The most significant change over the years has been an acceptance of the fragmenting and fractured media landscape and what determines success. Another significant change is program ownership, as many networks and parent studios now own several of the primetime series.
Breslow: It’s hard for me to speak, not being at a network, so I can only speculate that as ratings continue to fall and the marketplace continues to fragment, what used to be considered a hit, that bar has come home. If a show used to have to hit a 10.0 rating, maybe a 6.0 will get it picked up now. I really think because there are lower ratings thresholds now, the networks have to be a little more patient with their programming.
When do decisions about which shows will return start to be made?
Rash: Evaluations are made constantly and can go up to upfront eve.
Breslow: Well, they’re actually happening now. I think the networks start to do them before their press tours. Then that gives them an opportunity with the press to say, “these are some of the shows we’ll be bringing back next season, and there may be others.”
But a lot of the bubble show decisions won’t be made until the actual upfronts in May. It often depends on how much is already in the can. How much is up and coming? Sometimes the network is considering canceling a show, but it may not have anything waiting in the wings to replace it.
Which three bubble shows (on any broadcast network) do you think stand the best chance of returning?
Rash: NBC’s “30 Rock,” NBC’s “Friday Night Lights,” and ABC’s “Men in Trees” [which was picked up last week].
Breslow: A lot of the time, another thing that may come into play, I think the critics have some influence. If a network likes a show and it’s getting praised in the media, that may help swing their decision. One of those examples is “Friday Night Lights,” which really hasn’t found a large following, but those who do watch it are very loyal. From what I’ve been reading, that could be back.
Not to pick on NBC, but maybe “30 Rock,” they’re very high on it. Look, Alec Baldwin just won a Golden Globe. The critics love it, NBC loves it, and it’s not doing too poorly.
I don’t know what Fox is going to do with “Til Death.” Other than animation they don’t have too much in the way of comedies, so they want to get that presence. And you don’t just put a show you don’t care about behind “American Idol.” With it now getting about a 12 share on Wednesdays, I think they may pick it up again.
Which three bubble shows (on any broadcast network) look least likely to return?
Breslow: One I happened to be a fan of but I don’t think will be back is “The Class” on CBS, the comedy they ran on Monday. It has a pretty good ensemble, and I thought it was finally finding an audience; however they do have other comedies coming. I think they’re going to definitely have others hitting their schedule next season.
I was surprised ABC brought back “Men in Trees” and “The Bachelor.”
And I have a big question mark about “Jericho.” When it first came out it was doing great numbers, and in the fall I was convinced it would be back. But now it’s doing about a quarter of the numbers it was. I’m not sure the long layoff was good for a new show like that.
I think the CW may have to revamp a lot of their lineup, which doesn’t fare well for “The Game.” If they get rid of “Girlfriends,” they’ll likely get rid of “The Game.”
Also, Fox’s “The War at Home” may have seen its last day, it’s never a good sign when people on existing shows are in pilots for new shows.
Which recent bubble show's renewal surprised you the most?
Rash: A splendid surprise is the likely return of “30 Rock,” which is the type of innovative comedy that takes longer to catch on.
Breslow: Well, “Bachelor” coming back definitely, I think that show’s run its course. At the same token I think NBC needs to finally let Donald Trump go. I think it’s time for him to go out to pasture. Other than ABC, not a lot, I think they’re really one of the only networks to announce their pickups.
In a year like this, when there were very few standout new shows on broadcast, will networks be more willing to give a low-rated show a shot, or are they more likely to start over again with fresh fare?
Rash: A network's patience is often reflective of the genre -- for instance, serial dramas are less likely to be given the benefit of the doubt as opposed to episodic dramas or sitcoms.
