CBS has certainly had the best start when it comes to its returning series. Several of the network’s key programs have started out better than last season (Criminal Minds, CSI: Miami, CSI: NY, NCIS, How I Met Your Mother, Two and a Half Men, 48 Hours Mystery), while some others are only down marginally (Big Bang Theory, Survivor). Whether this holds up remains to be seen, but CBS couldn’t have asked for a much better start to the new season.
FOX has had a decent start to the season, as its returning Sunday animated comedies, The Simpsons, Family Guy, and American Dad, are outpacing last year, as is Bones.
ABC and NBC are not having the same success with returning series, as virtually all their non-football series are down from a year ago. Again, it’s too early to say this will continue, but it’s not a promising sign for either network.
ABC’s biggest declines come from their second-season series, which were cut short by the writers’ strike, and the network is sort of promoting as new (Dirty Sexy Money, Private Practice, Pushing Daisies). Of its more successful returning series, Dancing With the Stars, Grey’s Anatomy, Desperate Housewives, and Brothers & Sisters, the declines are smaller (less than 10%). Ugly Betty, however, was down sharply in its premiere.
NBC’s problems run just as deep, as Heroes, Law & Order: SVU, E.R., and My Name is Earl were all down by more than 15 percent among adults 18-49. So far, only The Office and Biggest Loser are holding their own.
CW’s Gossip Girl is up significantly over last year at this time, and Supernatural is up slightly. Its only other two returning series to debut at this writing, America’s Next Top Model and Smallville are down a bit.
And relating to the recent discussion on our site about ad rates and performance for Fringe some interesting observations:
MAGNA’s research shows that the audience retention of Fringe’s commercial pods have so far been significantly greater than the typical FOX drama (helped no doubt by the network announcing that ?Fringe will return in 60, 70, or 90 seconds? before each national commercial pod).
We looked at Fringe in relation to other FIX dramas the week of September 22nd. Here are some of our key findings:
Fringe contained less than half the commercial load of the typical FOX drama.
Even more significant, the average length of Fringe’s national commercial pods was only 40% of the typical FOX drama. That’s because when FOX airs local commercials, they are part of its normal commercial pods, but in Fringe, the reduced pods are exclusively national, with a local pod broken out separately. So while the average commercial pod in other dramas was 3 minutes, 16 seconds, the average national commercial pod in Fringe was just 1 minute, 18 seconds.
Looking at Live + Same Day ratings, the average adult 18-49 rating fall-off from the program segment to the commercial pod for the typical FOX drama was 15%. For Fringe it was just 7%. This is a major improvement in audience retention.
New (and kind of new) Series Performance and Prognosis Program Date HH P12-34 A18-49 A25-54 A50+ CBS The Mentalist 9/23 HH: 9.9/15 12-34: 1.7/5 A18-49: 3.5/9 25-54: 5.0/11 A50+ 11.2/20
MAGNA Global is out with a new report on New Series Performance and Prognosis and their views largely mirror the findings in our Renew / Cancel Index.
Here are some highlights:
CBS’s The Mentalist and FOX’s Fringe, are the two stand-out new shows so far this season. The CBS drama because it sustained its strong opening performance in its second episode. The FOX drama, not just because of its solid rating performance, but also because of its reduced commercial load, which is helping it retain more of its commercial minute audience than the typical FOX series. Both were pre-empted for the Presidential Debate last week.
ABC’s Life on Mars and CBS’s Eleventh Hour, each had decent debuts in the same Thursday 10-11pm hour. It will take another week or two to determine if either has legs. They both may have had some of their potential male audience lured away by FOX’s competing baseball playoffs.
NBC’s new comedy, Kath & Kim had an OK premiere, but certainly can’t be labeled a hit.
CBS’s Gary Unmarried and The Ex-List can go either way, while NBC’s heavily touted Knight Rider must be a disappointment for the network.
Second-season series being re-launched this fall, ABC’s Pushing Daisies, Private Practice, and Dirty Sexy Money, along with NBC’s Lipstick Jungle and Life, and FOX’s Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles, are not performing up to their respective network’s expectations.
Most new dramas decline after their debut episodes. The Mentalist and Fringe are so far bucking this trend. We’ll need a week or two to see if the same can be said for Life on Mars and Eleventh Hour.
New shows that start out poorly, however, seldom rebound. So the next couple of weeks bear watching. By the end of the month, we’ll have a clear picture of new series hits and misses.
Originally posted by Zedman2: CBS’s The Mentalist and FOX’s Fringe, are the two stand-out new shows so far this season. The CBS drama because it sustained its strong opening performance in its second episode. The FOX drama, not just because of its solid rating performance, but also because of its reduced commercial load, which is helping it retain more of its commercial minute audience than the typical FOX series.
It would be interesting to see some real annalysis on thre Fringe commercial viewership. We don't normally see the 'C3' data (which is what really matters for the advertisers and networks), but Fringe is in a unique position. This article hints at higher retention for commercial viewers due to the short duration of the commercial breaks, but on the other side of the coin is the fact that Fringe has fewer ad spots to pull in money from. Half the ad spots sold at twice the per ad rate is a financial wash. It would be interesting to know if Fringe comes in below or above that wash line. Who knows, if the fewer ads model proves successful, maybe we would see fewer ads across the board for TV shows in the future? One can dream, right?
CBS’s The Mentalist and FOX’s Fringe, started out as the two stand-out new shows, and that is still the case. The CBS drama because it has had only minimal audience fall-off from its strong opening performance. The FOX drama, not just because of its solid rating performance, but also because of its reduced commercial load, which is helping it retain more of its commercial minute audience than the typical FOX series.
Now, we might have to add CBS’s Thursday 10pm drama, Eleventh Hour, to the list. It debuted a competitive third against NBC’s E.R. and ABC’s new Life on Mars. But it maintained its premiere audience in week 2 (while the ABC drama declined), and actually edged out NBC for the lead among adults 25-54. It also gained among older viewers from its premiere.
ABC’s Life on Mars declined sharply from its solid debut ratings. The next telecast should tell us whether it will rebound, stabilize, or free-fall. The new reality show, Opportunity Knocks is a disappointment for ABC, and has already been pre-empted – not a good sign for the show’s longevity.
CBS’s new Monday comedy, Worst Week, has been competitive in a relatively weak time slot, while the new Wednesday comedy, Gary Unmarried, has held onto its Old Christine lead-in audience, and is ahead of ABC and NBC. Both must be considered modest time-period successes. The new drama, The Ex-List, can go either way.
NBC has had no success with its new series (which may be an indication that the pilot process, while expensive, is nonetheless important—CBS and FOX, with the most successful new shows, did produce pilots). NBC’s new comedy, Kath & Kim, and its new dramas, My Own Worst Enemy, Knight Rider, and Crusoe, have all been disappointments for the network.
Second-season series being re-launched this fall, ABC’s Pushing Daisies, Private Practice, and Dirty Sexy Money, along with NBC’s Lipstick Jungle and Life, and FOX’s Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles, are not performing up to their respective network’s expectations. Private Practice and Terminator have the best chance of lasting through the season.
Download the entire report for lots of data on the individual shows including date by date ratings for a wide variety of age demos.
